2020年2月3日，鼠年第一個交易日，A股再次經歷了千股跌停，據統計，這已經是第22次A股的千股跌停了，但這一次跌停股數絕對值與佔比都創歷史新高，3209只股票跌停，佔比超過85%，一日境況之慘烈遠超2015年股災，相信很多人在面對這種暴跌都慌不擇路，血淚斬倉，然而“奧馬哈先知”是怎麼做的呢？
鼠年第一個交易日，A股跌停股數與佔比都創歷史新高
2007年-2008年金融危機從美國席捲全球，雷曼倒閉，高盛告急，投資人血本無歸，老百姓無家可歸，這場金融危機慘烈程度可以說是空前劇烈，可能只有1929年大衰退能與之相提並論。
2008年9月到10月份，危機發酵到了最高潮，關鍵時刻，巴菲特出手，他不僅大筆買入危機中的公司，同時發聲，罕見聲援美國經濟與股市。2008年10月17日，《紐約時報》刊登巴菲特的特稿，他在文章中表示動用個人資金購買美國股票。他奉行的是一個很簡單的信條：即他人貪婪時他恐懼，他人恐懼時他貪婪。以下是巴菲特在《紐約時報》所發文章的全文，英文原文附著在翻譯後：
1929年大衰退
無論是在美國還是在世界其他地方，金融市場都陷入了混亂，同時金融行業的危機已經開始滲透到實體經濟中，並且這種滲透正在井噴式爆發。近期，失業率還將上升，商業活動將停滯不前，頭條新聞繼續會是令人害怕的消息。
因此...我開始購買美國股票。我動用的是自己的私人賬戶，之前該賬戶中除了美國聯邦政府債券外沒有任何資產。（之所以沒有動用伯克希爾-哈撒韋的資產，是因為該公司的資產將全部投入到慈善事業中。）如果美國證券的價格繼續保持吸引力，那麼我的非伯克希爾淨資產不久將全部是美國證券。
為什麼？
因為我奉行一條簡單的信條：即別人貪婪時我恐懼，別人恐懼時我貪婪。（Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful）當然，在多數情況下恐懼會蔓延，即使是經驗豐富的投資者也無法抗拒這種恐懼感。不過有點是肯定的，投資者應該對競爭地位弱、但槓桿率高的實體或企業保持警惕。但對於美國很多競爭力強的公司，沒有必要擔心他們的長期前景。這些公司的利潤也會時好時壞，但多數大公司在5、10、20年後都將創下新的利潤記錄 。
別人貪婪時我恐懼，別人恐懼時我貪婪
我要澄清一點：我無法預計股市的短期變動，對於股票1個月或1年內的漲跌情況我不敢妄言。然而有個情況很可能會出現，在市場恢復信心或經濟復甦前，股市會上漲而且可能是大漲。因此，如果你等知更鳥叫時，反彈時機已經錯過了。
先學點歷史知識：大蕭條時期，1932年7月8日道-瓊斯指數跌至歷史最低點的41點，到弗蘭克林·羅斯福在1933年3月上任前，經濟狀況依然持續惡化，不過當時股市卻漲了30%。再回到第二次世界大戰的初期，美軍在歐洲和太平洋戰場的情況很糟，1942年4月股市再次跌至谷底，而這時離盟軍扭轉戰局還很遠。再比如，上世紀80年代初，通貨膨脹加劇、經濟急速下滑，但卻是購買股票的最佳時機。總之，壞消息是投資者最好的朋友，你能以很低的代價賭美國的未來。
每個時代都有看起來可怕的危機，但是人類都安全的度過，圖為石油危機景象
長期來看，股市將會好轉。在20世紀美國經歷2次世界大戰和其他大規模的戰爭，經歷過衰退、多次的衰退和金融危機；石油危機；流行疾病；和總統因醜聞下臺等事件。但道指卻從66點漲到了11497點。也許你會認為，對一個投資者來說在一個出現如此多機會的世紀裡還虧錢是不可能的。但有些投資者確實虧了。這些倒黴蛋總是在感覺不錯時買入股票，但在市場令他們恐懼時賣出。
今天擁有現金或現金等價物的人可能感覺不錯。但他們錯了。他們選擇了一項可怕的長期資產，一種實際上沒有付出任何代價但肯定會貶值的資產。事實上，美國政府實施的救市政策可能會導致通貨膨脹，從而加速現金資產的貶值。未來10年證券的價值幾乎肯定會高於現金，而且很可能高出很多。那些堅持持有現金瞄準其他投資領域的投資者，正在等待好消息，但他們忘了Wayne Gretzky（冰球明星）的一句忠告：我總是滑向冰球運動的方向，而不是等冰球到位再追。
我不喜歡對股市進行猜測，我再次強調我對股市的短期行情沒有任何瞭解。儘管如此，我將遵從一家在空蕩蕩的銀行大樓裡開業的餐館的廣告指示：「把你嘴巴放到你的錢曾經呆過的地方。」今天我的錢和我的嘴巴都在說股票。
長期來看，股票資產回報會高於任何一項資產回報
英文原版：
THE financial world is a mess, both in the United States and abroad. Its problems, moreover, have been leaking into the general economy, and the leaks are now turning into a gusher. In the near term, unemployment will rise, business activity will falter and headlines will continue to be scary.
So ... I’ve been buying American stocks. This is my personal account I’m talking about, in which I previously owned nothing but United States government bonds. (This description leaves aside my Berkshire Hathaway holdings, which are all committed to philanthropy.) If prices keep looking attractive, my non-Berkshire net worth will soon be 100 percent in United States equities.
Why?
A simple rule dictates my buying: Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful. And most certainly, fear is now widespread, gripping even seasoned investors. To be sure, investors are right to be wary of highly leveraged entities or businesses in weak competitive positions. But fears regarding the long-term prosperity of the nation’s many sound companies make no sense. These businesses will indeed suffer earnings hiccups, as they always have. But most major companies will be setting new profit records 5, 10 and 20 years from now.
Let me be clear on one point: I can’t predict the short-term movements of the stock market. I haven’t the faintest idea as to whether stocks will be higher or lower a month — or a year — from now. What is likely, however, is that the market will move higher, perhaps substantially so, well before either sentiment or the economy turns up. So if you wait for the robins, spring will be over.
A little history here: During the Depression, the Dow hit its low, 41, on July 8, 1932. Economic conditions, though, kept deteriorating until Franklin D. Roosevelt took office in March 1933. By that time, the market had already advanced 30 percent. Or think back to the early days of World War II, when things were going badly for the United States in Europe and the Pacific. The market hit bottom in April 1942, well before Allied fortunes turned. Again, in the early 1980s, the time to buy stocks was when inflation raged and the economy was in the tank. In short, bad news is an investor’s best friend. It lets you buy a slice of America’s future at a marked-down price.
Over the long term, the stock market news will be good. In the 20th century, the United States endured two world wars and other traumatic and expensive military conflicts; the Depression; a dozen or so recessions and financial panics; oil shocks; a flu epidemic; and the resignation of a disgraced president. Yet the Dow rose from 66 to 11,497.
You might think it would have been impossible for an investor to lose money during a century marked by such an extraordinary gain. But some investors did. The hapless ones bought stocks only when they felt comfort in doing so and then proceeded to sell when the headlines made them queasy.
Today people who hold cash equivalents feel comfortable. They shouldn’t. They have opted for a terrible long-term asset, one that pays virtually nothing and is certain to depreciate in value. Indeed, the policies that government will follow in its efforts to alleviate the current crisis will probably prove inflationary and therefore accelerate declines in the real value of cash accounts.
Equities will almost certainly outperform cash over the next decade, probably by a substantial degree. Those investors who cling now to cash are betting they can efficiently time their move away from it later. In waiting for the comfort of good news, they are ignoring Wayne Gretzky’s advice: “I skate to where the puck is going to be, not to where it has been.”
I don’t like to opine on the stock market, and again I emphasize that I have no idea what the market will do in the short term. Nevertheless, I’ll follow the lead of a restaurant that opened in an empty bank building and then advertised: “Put your mouth where your money was.” Today my money and my mouth both say equities.
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