Far more people in the US may have died from opioids in the past two decades than previously reported, according to a new analysis of unclassified drug deaths carried out using machine-learning algorithms.
根據使用機器學習算法對非分類藥物死亡進行的一項新分析，在過去20年裡，美國死於阿片類藥物的人可能比以前報道的多得多。
Elaine Hill and her colleagues at the University of Rochester, New York, were examining data on drug overdose deaths when they realised that 22 per cent of such cases reported between 1999 and 2016 were listed on death certificates as overdoses without specifying the substance involved.
紐約羅切斯特大學(University of Rochester，New York)的伊萊恩·希爾(Elaine Hill)和她的同事在檢查藥物過量死亡數據時發現，1999年至2016年期間報告的這類病例中，有22%被列入死亡證明，屬於服藥過量，但沒有具體說明涉及的物質。
“We found that remarkable, given the scale of the issue,” says team member Andrew Boslett.
團隊成員Andrew Boslett說：“考慮到問題的規模，我們發現這很了不起。”
The team tried to estimate what percentage of these unclassified deaths were due to opioids by analysing the coroners’ and medical reports from opioid overdoses and unclassified overdoses.
該小組試圖通過分析驗屍官的和阿片類藥物過量和未分類過量的醫療報告，估計這些未分類死亡的百分比是由阿片類藥物引起的。
First, the researchers used machine-learning algorithms to analyse deaths that had been recorded as being due to opioid overdose.
首先，研究人員使用機器學習算法來分析被記錄為由於阿片類藥物過量而導致的死亡。
They were able to identify common factors that could signify the involvement of opioids, such as descriptions of long-term pain and arthritis.
他們能夠確定可能表明阿片類藥物參與的共同因素，如對長期疼痛和關節炎的描述。
Using this information, the team estimates that 72 per cent of unclassified overdose deaths involved opioids.
利用這些信息，研究小組估計，72%的未分類過量死亡涉及阿片類藥物。
This finding suggests that 99,160 more people in the US have died from opioid overdoses than previously thought, an underestimate of 28 per cent.
這一發現表明，在美國，死於阿片類藥物過量的人數比先前認為的多出99160人，低估了28%。
According to these new results, a total of more than 450,000 people in the US have died from an opioid overdose since 1999.
根據這些新的結果，自1999年以來，美國共有45萬多人死於阿片類藥物過量。
“We were initially surprised by this data, but then it felt plausible when looking at work that’s been done on a local level,” says Hill.
希爾說：“最初我們對這些數據感到驚訝，但後來當我們看著當地已經完成的工作時，它感覺似乎是合理的。”
According to the analysis, some states under-reported opioid overdose deaths far more than others.
根據分析，一些州報告的阿片類藥物過量死亡人數遠遠多於其他州。
Pennsylvania and Delaware performed the worst in this regard.
賓夕法尼亞州和特拉華州在這方面表現最差。
The team is now studying exactly why so many US overdose deaths have been, and continue to be, unclassified.
該小組現在正在研究為什麼這麼多美國過量死亡一直是，並且繼續是非機密的。
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