「變局專欄23」警惕，“負”時代正在到來（中英雙語）

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編者按：在“負”時代下，國家崛起就像一場永遠沒有終點的耐力跑。從這個角度看，類似肺炎疫情的不確定衝擊，在未來中國發展的進程中恐怕還會經常出現。但只要應對得當，就沒什麼值得恐懼的。中國人民大學重陽金融研究院執行院長王文在《環球時報》英文版專欄“Wang Wen on Changing World”的第23篇專欄文章《警惕，“負”時代正在到來》於2月4日刊出，原英文標題為《Chinese people have most positive outlook in a negative world》，現將中英文內容轉發如下：

The spread of the novel coronavirus has brought an element of suffering to the 2020 Spring Festival. This has made the normally optimistic Chinese people more cautious about the future.

新型冠狀病毒性肺炎疫情讓中國人2020年春節過得很虐心！沒有聚會，出行受阻，“新年”的味道似乎都沒了。這令一向樂觀的中國人變得更謹慎。

More than a decade ago, a survey, conducted by the Grey Group and involving 8,000 participants in 16 countries and regions, showed that 94 percent of the polled Chinese believed in a better future, far ahead of Japanese (45 percent) and Singaporeans (66 percent). I estimate that if a similar survey were conducted now, it would show Chinese people's optimism is still ahead of that of people in other countries, even though there are reasons for it not to be high.

以前中國人可不這樣！十多年前，曾有調查數據顯示，94%的中國人相信“明天會更好”，遠遠超過了當時的日本（45%）、新加坡（66%）。我估計，若現在再調查，這個數據可能還會遠遠領先，但應該不會那麼高。

Over the years, many unpredictable events have been amplified by the media and on the internet. It has impacted people's expectations for a positive future. Especially in recent years, many of the negative phenomena that were rarely seen in the past are occurring around the globe.

這些年，太多不可測的事件發生，通過網絡放大了傳播效應，衝擊了人們對“正向”（positive）未來的預估，削弱了人們對進步主義發展邏輯的社會信仰。尤其是近些年，許多過去很少出現的“負向”現象正在全球各地普遍發生。

One negative phenomenon that has attracted much attention is negative interest rates. Negative interest rates have been rare in the history of economics. About 20 countries have adopted negative interest rate monetary policies in recent years. They aim to boost social consumption and corporate borrowing in the hope of boosting their economies. But for people in those countries, negative interest rates bring high uncertainty because their savings will depreciate and investments may suffer. In the short term, negative interest rates may contribute to economic growth, but over the long run they will promote excessive consumption, overly aggressive investment, and increase bank risks and the possibility of a new global financial crisis.

最令人關注的“負向”現象是“負利率”。“負利率”政策在各國的經濟金融政策史上是罕見的。然而，近年來，約20個國家推行“負利率”貨幣政策。對那些政府而言，實現“負利率”政策，意在促進社會消費與企業借貸，進而希望提升本國經濟。但對那些國家的民眾而言，“負利率”意味著存款將貶值、投資可能虧損的高度不確定生活。

The second negative phenomenon is negative growth. Negative interest rates are closely related to negative growth.In recent years, economies including Italy, Turkey, Argentina and Russia have experienced several quarters of negative growth. In order to prevent the frequent emergence of negative growth, various aggressive economic and financial policies have been adopted, including negative interest rates. But another cause of negative growth is hard to rectify: population. In most European countries and Japan, there is a labor shortage; the population is in decline; economic policies are weak, and expectations for development and growth are gloomy.

二是“負增長”現象。“負利率”與“負增長”密切相關。近幾年，意大利、土耳其、阿根廷、俄羅斯等主要大國都曾出現過多個季度的經濟“負增長”。各國為防止經濟“負增長”頻繁出現，推出了各種激進的經濟金融政策，包括負利率。但恐怕仍難以抑制另一類“負增長”現象，即“人口”。大多數歐洲國家、日本的勞動力不足，人口總量下降，經濟政策乏力，發展預期令人悲觀。

The third negative phenomenon is the negative role that the US has been playing. Unlike at the end of WWII when the US led the world out of recession, the US is now playing a negative role in international development. Its withdrawal from various international treaties has undermined the international order that was established after WWII. Partisan disputes in the US have brought unprecedented challenges to its democratic system. Trade wars launched by the US have dealt a huge blow to the world economy. The negative effect of a hegemonic power is a reality that needs to be reinterpreted in international political theory.

三是“負作用”。與二戰結束時，美國作為世界領袖，帶領各國走出衰退不同，現在的美國並沒有起到“正向”影響，反而發揮著世界發展的“負作用”。各種“退出”，令二戰以來的國際秩序面臨崩潰的可能性；各種“黨爭”，令民主制度受到了空前的挑戰；各種“貿易戰”，令世界經濟受到巨大的衝擊。

The fourth is "negative energy". Traditionally, young people represent a country's vitality, innovative thought and upward force. Throughout the 20th century they promoted the unprecedented prosperity brought by economic globalization, trade liberalization and scientific and technological breakthroughs.Nowadays, many young people around the world have become decadent and confused complainers. In 2019, in some developed regions, including Hong Kong and France, many young people have taken to the streets and resorted to violence that has led to social disorder and chaos.

四是“負能量”。這是來自當代青年一代的新變化。傳統時代，年輕人代表著朝氣、創新與向上的力量，推動著20世紀經濟全球化、貿易自由化、科技信息化的空前繁榮。而現在，全球許多青年人變得頹廢、迷惘甚至抱怨。2019年，在香港、智利、法國等人們印象中的發達區域，青年人都陷入深深的“抱怨政治”。他們湧向街頭，採取暴力手段，導致了許多地方的社會失序、混亂。

Compared to the above negative situations occurring in many parts of the world, the coronavirus epidemic in China is only a temporary shock. During the Spring Festival holidays, many officials, medical staff, construction workers, and media personnel have given up their vacation to combat the virus.

相比世界許多地方的“負”，中國的“疫情”只能算是短暫的衝擊。這個春節，數百萬官員、醫務與市政、建築，媒體人員都放棄假期，加班加點。

A 1,000-bed hospital has been built in just 10 days. Donations have exceeded tens of billions of yuan. More than 1 billion Chinese people have fully cooperated with the government. There have been no riots or disorder, which shows the strong power of positive attitudes in China. From this perspective, China remains the country with the most positive and least negative attitudes in the world.

十天建成醫院、數百億元的捐贈、14億人全面配合政府隔離與居家政策，沒有騷亂，沒有失序，這令人看到“正向”力量在中國的強大。從這個角度看，中國仍是世界上“正”字最多、“負”字最少的國家。

However, Chinese people may need to undergo a psychological transformation and upgrade: Cruel international competition, the deterioration of the global environment, the lack of impetus for global economic growth, and the pressures of the next generation will make China's sustainable development and national rejuvenation more difficult. Fortunately, Chinese policymakers have been well aware of the difficulties ahead.

不過，中國人恐怕需要有心理轉型與升級：國際競爭的殘酷、地球環境的惡化、全球經濟增長的乏力、未來一代的壓力都令中國可持續發展、民族復興變得更難。

其實，中國決策層已有對困難的充分估計。近兩三年，習近平常說，中華民族的偉大復興是一項偉大事業，偉大事業需要幾代人、十幾代人和幾十代人去完成。幾代人是100年，十幾代人就是幾百年，幾十代人就是上千年啊！

The rise of nations is a never-ending endurance race. From this perspective, negative impacts, such as the coronavirus outbreak, are likely to occur frequently in China's future development. But as long as they are handled properly, there is nothing to fear.

在“負”時代下，國家崛起就像一場永遠沒有終點的耐力跑。

悲觀者正確，樂觀者成功！坦然面對“負”，勇敢堅持“正”，每個人的心理就會變得更成熟。

【變局專欄22】角逐中國市場的時代來了（中英雙語）

【變局專欄21】東方思想的崛起（中英雙語）

【變局專欄20】同情伊朗，譴責美國（中英雙語）

【變局專欄19】多看小城市，瞭解大中國（中英雙語）

中國人民大學重陽金融研究院（人大重陽）成立於2013年1月19日，是重陽投資董事長裘國根先生向母校捐贈並設立教育基金運營的主要資助項目。

作為中國特色新型智庫，人大重陽聘請了全球數十位前政要、銀行家、知名學者為高級研究員，旨在關注現實、建言國家、服務人民。目前，人大重陽下設7個部門、運營管理4箇中心(生態金融研究中心、全球治理研究中心、中美人文交流研究中心、中俄人文交流研究中心)。近年來，人大重陽在金融發展、全球治理、大國關係、宏觀政策等研究領域在國內外均具有較高認可度。

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