三月，華電福新發布了19年年報，我閱讀了年報，結合自己掌握的信息，說說自己關於公司的一些看法。
1. 應收賬款及賬期問題。
19年，公司應收賬款從18年的60億增長到95億。增幅達五成。如果是一般競爭企業，這是一個必須要注意的信號。但考慮到華電福新唯二的客戶是國家電網和南方電網，應不用擔心客戶的履約能力。另外有3100萬賬齡三年以上的應收賬款，是風電和太陽能的國家補貼遲遲沒有到位。從政府信用有拖無欠的一貫作風看，相信不會成為壞賬。
2. 其他經營開支劇增問題。
19年，公司其他經營開支項18.5億元，較18年7.9億暴增。暴增的原因如下2點：1，為合營公司借款提供擔保，做減值處理2.0億。2.對發電的資產計提減值損失4.7億，17年計提是1.3億，18年計提是457萬。計提減值突然增加。
在公開渠道，我沒有查到這家擔保的合營公司名稱，我去詢問公司官方微信，也沒有得到回覆。但我認為，公司合營的發電企業斷無違約可能，資產減值計提波動過大，這兩項被公司故意用來隱瞞利潤。（我估計隱藏了至少5億的利潤）
3. 貨幣資金問題。
19年年底，公司賬戶現金及現金等價物25億，較18年36億減少了不少。考慮到公司充裕現金流和良好的發債能力，我認為仍然處於安全水平。
4. 職工人數。
目前公司職工人數9千餘人，其中2千人在水電，水電15%的裝機容量佔有25%的職工比例。這有一些老國企的遺留問題。相信周寧蓄電項目投產後，水電職工較多的情況能有所改善。另外五年後，有約25%的55歲以上老職工會退休，也有助於解決企業職工人數富餘的問題。
5. 在建項目情況。
公司重點在建的有，周寧抽蓄水電，福清核電五、六號機組，廣州增城天然氣電熱項目，福清、陽江海上風電項目，以及廣西、雲南、湖南、山東、內蒙等地若干陸上風電項目。這些項目將在2020年到2021年陸續建成，將增加6700兆瓦的裝機容量，較現有裝機容量增加四成。
其中廣州增城天然氣電熱項目離我家不算遠，年前我去現場，工程正在有序施工。
6.火電還能賺錢嗎？
實際上19年，由於煤價下跌，火電已經實現了微利。而且我認為大概率動力煤已經運行到下降趨勢，未來火電盈利能力將增強。
7.邵武火電三期何時併網？
公司官方的說法是“全力推進邵武三期儘快轉入商業運行”，但沒有給具體時間表。我覺得這主要取決於福建周邊電力消化能力，當然這又取決於疫情過後福建及周邊地區經濟的經濟恢復程度。保持謹慎樂觀吧，畢竟煤電已經開始賺錢了。
8.三門核電2號機組的事故問題。
19年年初到11月，三門核電2號機組發生事故，一直沒有產生效益。這給作為小股東的華電福新帶來了1億元虧損。好消息是11月以後發電正常了。這也從中核電力的報告中得到了驗證。
9. 永續債問題。
截止19年年末，公司永續債餘額126億，由於該項計入權益類項目，在計算淨資產的時候容易高估。扣除永續債後，公司每股淨資產為3.4港元，市淨率僅為0.37。
10. 香港市場流動性問題。
香港市場成交量很低，在行情最低迷時候，公司日成交額不到500萬港幣。最近一個月擴大到了1000萬以上。成交量擴大，可能跟公司私有化傳聞有關。這是一個好現象，畢竟有充足的流動性，才好變現。(方圓)
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On March,Huadian Fuxin Energy Corparation released annual RESULTS announcement.I have read it. I’ll talk about my views on the company,combined with the information I have.
A.
Trade receivables and credit period
In the year 2019,the company’s Trade receivables surge from 6 billion to9.5billion.This is not a goodnews,if it is a general competitive enterprise.Considering that Huadian Fuxin's only two customers are State Grid and China Southern Power Grid, we should not worry about the their credit ability.In addition, there are 31 million accounts receivable with an account age of more than 3 years. The state subsidies for wind and solar energy are not paid now. In government we trust, it will pay one day.
B.
other operating expenses surging
In the year 2019,the company’s other operating expense 1.85 billion yuan,from the 2018’s 7.9 billion.The reasons are below:First,the estimated financial guarantee loss for providing guarantee for the bank loan of a joint venture.Second,impairment losses on certain power generating assets is 0.47billion,compared with 2017’s 0.17billion and 2018’s 4.57million.
In the public information channel, I didn't find the name of the guaranteed joint venture company. I went to inquire about the official wechat of the company, and I didn't get a reply.But the joint venture can hardly be default,impairment losses’s no reason increase.The company must deliberately conceal profits.(supposed 0.5 billon rmb)
C.
Cash and cash equivalents.
In the end of 2019, the cash and cash equivalents is 2.5billion rmb,less than 3.6 billion in 2018.Considering the company's abundant cash flow and good debt issuance ability, I think it is still safe.
D.
Number of staff
The number of staff is above 9000,2000 of them are in hydropower.15% of the installed capacity of hydropower accounts for 25% of the employees.These are problems left over by the old state-owned enterprises.It is believed that after the Fujian Zhouning pumped-storage project is put into operation, the situation of more hydropower workers can be improved.In addition, five years later, about 25% of the old workers over the age of 55 will retire, which will also help to solve the problem of surplus staff.
E.
Construction in progress.
The main Construction in progress are:Zhouning pumped-storage,Fuqing nuclear power unit 5 and 6, Guangzhou Zengcheng Natural gas-fired power (distributed),Fuqing,Yangjiang Offshore wind power and several onshore wind power projects in Guangxi,Yunnan,Hunan,Shandong,Inner Mongolia.These constructions will be completed before 2021, adding 6700mw of installed capacity , 40% more than the existing installed capacity.Among them, Zengcheng Natural gas-fired power project is not far from my home. I went to the site in 2019, and the project was under construction orderly.
F.
Can coal power make money?
Actually,due to the fall of coal price,coal power has achieved a small profit.And I believe,the power coal price has been running to a downward trend, and the profitability of coal power will be enhanced in the future.
G.
When will the Shaowu thermal power phaseIII be connected to the grid?
The official statement of the company is "to push Shaowu phase III into commercial operation as soon as possible", but no specific schedule was given. I think it mainly depends on the power digestion capacity of Fujian's surrounding areas, of course, it depends on the economic recovery of Fujian and its surrounding areas after the pandemic.
Be cautious and optimistic, after all, coal power has begun to make money.
H.
Accident of Sanmen Nuclear Power Unit 2
From January to November,2019,Sanmen Nuclear Power Unit 2 had some incidents,so not working.This brought a loss of 100 million yuan to Huadian Fuxin as a small shareholder. The good news is that power generation is normal after November. This is also verified by CNNC's report.
I.
Perpetual medium-term notes and renewable corporate bonds.At the end of 2019,the company’s perpetual capital securities balance is 12.6billion rmb.As this item is included in equity items, it is easy to overestimate when calculating net assets. After deducting perpetual bonds, the company's net assets per share is 3.4 HK $ and the PB is only 0.37.
J.
Liquidity in the Hong Kong market
Trading volume in Hong Kong market is very low. Some times, the daily turnover of the company is less than HK $5 million. It has expanded to more than 10 million in the last month. The expansion may be related to the rumors of privatization of the company. This is a good phenomenon. After all, only when there is sufficient liquidity, and we can enjoy the liquidity premium.
（Fangyuan.Guangzhou）
