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保银周评
2020.04.06-04.12
01
市场行情
上证指数：收于2796.63点，整周上涨1.18%
深圳成指：收于10298.41点，整周上涨1.86%
沪深300: 收于3769.18点，整周上涨1.51%
创业板指：收于1949.88点，整周上涨2.27%
恒生指数：收于24300.33点，整周上涨4.58%
*数据来源：wind（2020.04.06-04.12）
<code>上周市场上行后震荡，其中中证500周涨1.99%，沪深300周涨1.51%；行业方面，休闲服务，国防军工和建筑材料涨幅最大，分别为5.73%，4.70%和4.36%，而电子，纺织服装和采掘则涨幅落后，分别收-1.22%，-0.70%和0.28%；上周北向资金净流入合计92.21亿元，净流入集中在食品饮料板块，而净流出则集中在电子板块。/<code>
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至臻致远，与时间为伴
02
行业点评
宏观
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中国的社融数据大幅超预期，欧美投资者大概会解读为刺激政策，再加上欧洲刺激政策的消息，利好国际股市。中国通胀数据下行，尤其是非食品CPI创多年新低，降息的可能性上升。
近日，金融委针对资本市场提到要“提升市场活跃度”，业内有讨论会不会推出T+0改革。有接近监管人士表示，T+0制度仍需时间孕育。预计需在机构投资者占比进一步提升至较高比例时，才会考虑T0制度的改革。
上周市场逐步企稳，上证综指上涨1.18%，上周仅有四个交易日，清明假期和复活节假期压缩了外资流动，深市流入43.56亿，沪市流入48.65亿。
Risk sentiment continues to improve as virus situations are beginning to peak in a number of countries, while central banks and governments continue to stimulate with massive monetary and fiscal packages. USD LIBOR dropped noticeably on Thursday to 1.21888 (-9bps), ending the week 17bps lower.
After hesitating in the previous week, gold prices soared in the last few days, with spot trading as high as $ 1690.23. Policymakers keep pumping money into the system, gold will be the most benefited
S&P500 rallied 10.4% post its best weekly gain in 45 years. VIX reset 5 points lower closing at 42. Given the elevated realized volatility and continued uncertainty about the future, the rate at which VIX is falling has slowed over the past week. At current spot level dealers are estimated to be slightly long gamma in S&P500, which is $0.5bn gamma / 1% move in SPX less long than historical averages (38th percentile since 2012).
S&P500 continued its recent momentum rallied 1.5% on Thursday, up 12% for the week and 25% from its march 23rd close. Fed announced it would purchase certain high yield bonds, the HY bond ETFs HYG/JNK rallied 6.5%+ on thursday. This looks like overreaction to the news.、
The OPEC+ partners has proposed a 10mil bpd oil output cut (or ~12% of worldwide production) for 2 months. This event came with a twist, that Mexico was originally committing only 100k bpd cut vs. 400k mandated; however that amount will be replenished by US therefore clearing the way for this deal, still pending finalisation. Although 10mil bpd doesn’t quite alleviate the demand problem in recent months, it’s a positive sign for international communities to step in to calm the waters. Once demand steps up post coronavirus, we should see a stabilised oil price.
消费
在疫情影响下，广告市场供需双降，致2月全媒体广告刊例花费同比下降28.6%，降幅较1月扩大 23.0ppt，是2017年以来的最大降幅。
近日天猫正式发布“双百亿品牌超级新客提升计划”。根由于疫情，商家及电商平台都受到比较严重的影响；疫情过后，预计商家和电商平台将会加大促销及优惠力度来拉动增长。
近期绝大部分连锁餐饮企业的堂食恢复营业，其中星巴克、百胜、海底捞和九毛九等上市公司均提到生意有逐步恢复趋势，但客流仍普遍受压，餐厅经营区域和营业时长也受到管制。消费习惯方面，快餐恢复快于火锅和正餐，人数较多的聚餐减少，家庭出外就餐减少影响到周末生意。餐饮行业恢复速度较市场预期缓慢，预计完全恢复要延后至三季度。
据英国《每日邮报》4月10日报道，数以百亿的沙漠蝗虫正在东非的发源地迅速成熟，非洲蝗灾卷土重来，而且规模是今年几个月前的20倍。若持续发酵，粮食、农药类可以关注。
一和周四冲击两波，周二和周五显著回落，但整体脉冲上行，从侧面印证可能是real money 申购冲击带来的价值股回暖。
During the Qing Ming long weekend, the number of domestic tourist number reached 43m (-61% yoy) and domestic tourism revenue amounted to Rmb8.26bn (-81% yoy), according to China Tourism Academy. In selected regions, tourist number has recovered to over 50% of same period last year. Short-haul travel in nearby cities is the mainstream and ~50% of hotel orders are 4-star and 5-star hotels, according to the trip.com. The upcoming Labor Day Holiday will be the key to watch for both leisure travel and domestic consumption especially this year has 5-day holidays from 1-5 May (vs. 4 days in 2019).
There were relatively large short covers on Monday to Wednesday in Japan marekt which arrived roughly two weeks after overseas markets. On the real business front, many of the retail businesses with Feb year-end started to report their results and guidance which look to be bad but still optimistic. Emergency declarations/stay-at-home requests from the government is working only in the CBD but not local commercial districts. Head of the public health testing centre in Saitama (next to Tokyo) was on TV news and stated that he has been suppressing test requests from hospitals because he didn't want to see the infected number to go up and this might be true for Tokyo too where daily test cases has been around 300 to 450+ despite the population. Y108trn economic stimulus and subsidies now appear to be pretty much fake. Despite the ciriticism, the central government is asking local government not to implement stringent measures to close stores because the central govt seems to worry that shops and businesses might come back to them to ask for compensations. It is an interesting start of the state of emergency.
TMT
印度经济监测中心的数据显示，过去两周因印度封城造成至少有5000万人失业，印度的城市失业率从两周前的8.66%上升到目前的30.93%。据VIVO相关专家称，VIVO印度手机环比下降达80%，南亚其他国家如孟加拉国基本关闭手机市场，东南亚lazada停止部分国家(菲律宾)的订单处理和物流服务。若智能手机最主要增量市场南亚、东南亚的疫情持续，考虑当地消费者本身储蓄较低，收入下降会明显降低其购买手机的意愿和能力，今年全球中低端智能手机的销售压力将较大。
新能源汽车产业链的草根调研显示，4月份的生产环比3月份可能进一步下跌，因去年的遗留订单以及适当补库存的需要，3月份的生产情况总体好于预期，但4月份企业的新订单明显不足，电动汽车产品陆续开始降价，甚至开始出现零首付（如威马的直购模式、北汽的使用权交易办法等），如果情况在5月份没有好转，行业可能将面临一场裁员潮或关门潮。
Recent supply chain check suggests many component makers are not yet seeing any change of orders. Demand for components remain strong. While component suppliers are aware of the virus situations and many countries are still in the lockdown, they suspect smartphone makers are more worry about supply chain disruptions than actual demand, so they rather stock up on components. It seems there could potentially be a mismatch between supply and demand. In the next 2-3 months, if the demand for smartphones do not have a V shape recovery, supply chain could see a sharp order cuts.
医药
北京市宣布4月12日起进京人员入驻酒店应持有7日内经当地核酸检测呈阴性的证明；开封市政府公告扩大检测范围，对特定人群全部免费开展新冠病毒检测，其中包括无症状感染者的密切接触者、无症状感染者解除隔离后与其共同生活的人员。后疫情时期，新冠检测在特定人群中仍然会持续开展，从感染人群扩展到健康高危人群，相关的胶体金&核酸试剂产品将不断受益。
