Ray Gordon, studied Economics at Michigan State UniversityAnswered 7h agoIt is possible to the same extent but not at the same speed.China had some of the fastest industrialization on Earth in times of speed and scale due to a combination of:Rapid and effective government policiesA relatively favorable environment for export based industrialization (Globalization, free trade, Western countries willing to absorb large job losses through trade deficits, etc…)Huge FDI from Greater China (Taiwan, HK) that enabled thisGreat infrastructure that was the backbone of all these factorsLack of competition from other industrial leviathans like ChinaI’ve already explained here the reasons why export-based industrialization is starting to fade: Ray Gordon's answer to What is the economic future of Pakistan?What I’ve often heard is: India is a big country that has a lot of cheap labor, all we need to do is make our politics more pro-Business and everything will magically resolve itself.This type of thinking is naive, simply put, India does not have the required political environment, infrastructural capacity, favorable global environment, nor the required government efficiency to sustain rapid industrialization. The same favorable global trends (globalization, free trade, booming Western economies willing to absorb trade deficits, lack of feasible automation) are not here anymore, and India will need at least a decade or two of heavy infrastructure buildup to be competitive beyond extremely low wage low valued added goods. India doesn’t have the resources to do these things.It is possible that India will achieve a similar level of industrialization but I simply don’t see it happening as quickly as China did.269 Views · View Upvoters
是有可能的，但是速度沒中國那麼快。中國的工業化在速度和規模上可謂世界第一，原因如下：快速和有效的政府政策建立在出口基礎上的工業化擁有有利的環境（全球化，自由貿易，西方國家願意通過貿易逆差吸收大量的就業損失等等）來自大中華區的外國直接投資（臺灣，香港）良好的基建沒有其他工業強國的競爭。我經常聽人們說：印度是一個擁有大量廉價勞動力的大國，我們需要做的就是建立良好的商業環境，屆時一切問題都會迎刃而解。這樣的想法是很幼稚的，簡單來說，印度不具備所需要的政治環境，基建設施，有利的全球環境，政府效率也不高，無法維持快速的工業化。同樣的有利條件（全球化，自由貿易， 繁榮的西方經濟願意吸收貿易赤字，可行的自動化的缺乏）已經不再，除了低工資和低附加值產品外，印度至少還需要一二十年時間建造基建，這樣才具備競爭力。但是印度沒有資源這麼做。印度是有可能取得類似的工業化水平，但是在實現速度上應該沒中國那麼快。
Nilesh Kamath, Film Producer at Los Angeles (1993-present)Answered Apr 12, 2017CHINA could industrialize rapidly because it had a willing & hungry customer called US to gobble up whatever it could produce. Given that US has turned more circumspect & inward looking, who will don the mantle of the US were India to go on industrialization spree? Secondly, even after feeding the US, China has unused excess capacity to cater to the rest of the World, which obviously gives China the edge both production wise & price wise.So if India is purely going to ramp up just to cater to its domestic markets, then there is very little incentive for the business’s to ramp up their capex unless, the GoI steps in & offers big subsidies. But that means we will be turning back the clock and revisiting the old license Raj days.So unless the Demographic projections of the experts holds true, there is very little India can benefit by rapidly industrializing. India’s best bet is to think out of the box, and instead of emulating China’s success, create openings where China is at its weakest, by creating a world class service & knowledge based economy. India needs to learn from Singapore not China.678 Views · View Upvoters
中國能快速工業化是因為飢渴的客戶美國需要中國生產的任何產品。考慮到美國越來越謹慎和向內看，那麼印度的工業化誰來支持？第二，在餵飽美國後，中國還有能力滿足世界其他國家，因此這在生產和價格方面賦予了中國優勢。所以印度如果只是為了滿足自己的國內市場，那麼企業幾乎是沒什麼動力來增加自己的產量，除非政府介入，提供大量的補貼。但那意味著我們在撥回時間，重走老路。所以除非專家的人口預測是真的，否則印度的快速工業化所獲得利益將會很少。印度最好是擺脫條條框框，與其模仿中國的成功，還不如在中國最脆弱的地方另闢蹊徑，創造世界級的服務和知識經濟。印度應該向新加坡學習而不是中國。
Jeffery ZhangWedIndia will not get rich off of service/knowledge jobs because by definition the moat for these jobs are low. Whatever competitive advantage you have in these fields are limited to what you can accumulate over one working life, whereas the advantages in manufacturing and capital intensive industries can be accumulated over multiple generations.India can only compete in service jobs as long as its labor costs are cheap. There is no way of improving service productivity and competitiveness at the same rate as for manufacturing by investing in better machinery. Pursuing a service oriented economic development strategy will guarantee that India falls into the Middle Income Trap.
印度無法通過服務和知識崗位變得富有，在這些領域所具有的競爭優勢只限於一代人，而在製造業和資本密集型產業裡的優勢可以是幾代人的累積。只要印度的勞動力成本是廉價的，那麼印度只能在服務崗位具備競爭力。服務業的生產力和競爭力的提升速度是無法跟上製造業的提升速度的。以服務業為導向性的經濟發展戰略將使得印度陷入中等收入陷阱。
Jeffery ZhangAnswered WedNo, the earliest countries to industrialize reaped the greatest profits. Each subsequent round has to compete with the already industrialized countries so the profits are lower than the previous round.Before China industrialized, only 1/5th of the world lived in industrialized countries. China’s industrialization brought that up to 2/5th. China has so much spare industrial capacity the profit margins in many industrial sectors are close to 0 or even negative. This makes industrialization basically unprofitable for anyone else. Countries that try to industrialize after China would find themselves poorer rather than richer by industrializing because they would not be able to pay for the cost of industrialization with the profits.
不能，最早進行工業化的國家收貨了最多的果實。那些後來的工業化國家必須和已經工業化的國家競爭，所以可以獲得好處比之前的要低。在中國工業化之前，只有五分之一的世界人口生活在工業化國家。中國的工業化使得這個數字達到了五分之二。中國擁有太多過程的工業能力，所以很多行業的利潤空間接近於0，甚至是負數。這使得其他國家的工業化幾乎毫無利潤可言。在中國之後進行工業化的國家會發現自己比原來更窮了，因為他們工業化的成本比利潤還高。
轉自西諾網
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