閱讀背景
過去40年間，中國城市人口已增長了四倍，達到8.13億。正在描繪的一張新藍圖更為雄心勃勃：包括已成規模的珠三角、長三角、京津冀在內，中國將打造19個特大型“超級城市群”，探索城市化的新模式。
Urbanisation
A tale of 19 mega-cities
十九巨城記
The country tries to reshape itself into a series of conurbations
中國試圖重塑自己，打造一系列大都市圈
CHINA’S urbanisationis amarvel. The population of its cities hasquintupledover the past 40 years, reaching 813m. By 2030 roughly one in five of the world’s city-dwellers will be Chinese. But thismushroomingis not without its flaws. Rulesrestrictingmigrants’ access to public services mean that some 250m people living in cities are second-class citizens (see chart), who could in theory be sent back to their home districts. That,in turn, has crimped the growth of China’s cities, which would otherwise be even bigger.
註釋：
urbanisation/,ə:bənai'zeiʃən/n. 城市化（等於urbanization）
marvel/'mɑːv(ə)l/n. 奇蹟 v. 對…感到驚異
quintupled/'kwɪntjʊpl/adj. 五倍的
mushrooming/'mʌʃrumiŋ/adj. 迅速增長的
restricting/ris'triktiŋ/n. 限制；扼流v. 限制（restrict的ing形式）
migrantsn. 移民；移居者
in turn 反過來；轉而；輪流，依次
段落大意：
中國的城市化進程是個奇蹟。過去40年間，中國城市人口增長了四倍，達到8.13億。到2030年，全球約五分之一的城市居民將會是中國人。但這種激增並非沒有弊端。一些規定讓外來人員無法充分享受公共服務，大約2.5億居住在城市的人因此淪為二等公民（見圖表），這些人理論上可以被遣送回鄉。而這進而又限制了中國的城市發展，否則這些城市的規模還會更大。
Restraining pell-mell urbanisation may sound like a good thing, but it worries the government’s economists, since bigger cities are associated with higher productivity and faster economic growth. Hence a new plan to remake the country’s map. The idea is tofosterthe rise ofmammothurban clusters, anchored around giant hubs and containing dozens of smaller, but by no means small, nearby cities. The plan calls for 19 clusters in all, which would account for nine-tenths of economic activity (see map). China would, in effect,condenseinto a country of super-regions. Three are already well on track: the Pearl River Delta, next to Hong Kong; the Yangzi River Delta, which surrounds Shanghai; and Jingjinji, centred on Beijing.
註釋：
pell-melladv. 匆忙地；倉促；混亂地
foster/'fɒstə/v. 培養；養育
mammoth/'mæməθ/n. 長毛象；adj. 巨大的，龐大的
condense/kən'dens/v. 使濃縮；使壓縮
段落大意：
對無序的城市化加以控制聽上去似乎是件好事，政府的經濟學家們卻為此感到擔憂，因為城市擴大能帶來更高的生產率和更快的經濟增長。一項重繪國家地圖的新計劃應運而生，意圖促進特大城市群崛起。這些城市群以巨大的中心城市為依託，輻射周邊幾十個相對較小（其實本身並不小）的城市。計劃打造的城市群總數為19個，將佔中國經濟活動總量的90%（見地圖）。如此一來，中國實際上將濃縮為多個超級區域的集合體。其中三個已經基本成形，分別是毗鄰香港的珠三角、上海周邊的長三角，以及以北京為中心的京津冀。
For some urban planners, the strategy isbeguiling. They see the clusters as enginesfor growth that could transform China into a wealthy, innovative powerhouse. But others think it is a trap—a government-driven exercise in development that will lead togridlockand waste.
註釋：
strategy /ˈstrætədʒɪ/n. 戰略，策略
beguiling/bi'ɡailiŋ/adj. 欺騙的；消遣的；令人陶醉的
engines/ˈɛndʒəns/n. [動力] 發動機，[動力] 引擎；火車頭
gridlock/'grɪdlɒk/n. 僵局；vi. 交通阻塞
段落大意：
在一些城市規劃者眼裡，這一戰略相當誘人。他們將城市群視為令中國發展成富裕創新強國的增長引擎。但另一些人認為這是作繭自縛：這種政府主導下的發展實驗將導致僵局和浪費。
Hu Qiuping, a safety manager for a chemicals company, is in the urban vanguard. She lives in Wuxi, a city of 6m about 150km west of Shanghai. A trip between the two used to take a couple of hours. Today the bullet train takes just 29 minutes. Every Monday and Friday she works in Wuxi, inspecting the chemicals factory. From Tuesday to Thursday she travels to the firm’sheadquartersin Shanghai. She could have based herself in either city, but living costs were much lower in Wuxi. At first she wondered whether her commute wasunusual. It was not. “I see familiar faces on the train every day,” she says.
註釋：
vanguard/'vængɑːd/n. 先鋒
headquarters/hed'kwɔːtəz/n. 總部；指揮部；司令部
unusual/ʌnˈju:ʒl/adj. 不尋常的；與眾不同的；不平常的
段落大意：
胡秋萍（音譯）是一家化工企業的安全經理，也是雙城生活的先行者。她居住在上海以西約150公里、人口600萬的無錫。從前來往兩地需要兩三個小時，現在乘高鐵只需29分鐘。週一、週五她在無錫工作，在化工廠巡視，週二到週四前往公司位於上海的總部。她本可以住在這兩個城市中的任意一個，但是無錫的生活成本要低得多。一開始她還想著自己這種通勤方式是不是很少見。並不。“我每天都在火車上看到熟面孔。”她說。
For those in bedroom communities near London or Manhattan, Ms Hu’s train rides probably sound familiar. But three features make China’s super-regions exceptional. The first is scale. The biggest existing city cluster in the world is greater Tokyo, home to some 40m people. When it isfullyconnected the Yangzi delta, where Ms Hu is based, will be almost four times as big, with 150m people. The average population of the five biggest clusters that China hopes to develop is 110m. Part of the reason is that the physical area of most of the Chineseclusterswill also be bigger. The mostprosperous, the Pearl delta, is expected to cover 42,000 square kilometres, about the same as the Netherlands.
註釋：
exceptional/ɪk'sepʃ(ə)n(ə)l; ek-/adj. 異常的，例外的
fully/'fʊlɪ/adv. 充分地；完全地；徹底地
clusters/'klʌstɚ/n. [植] 簇；叢；[計] 群集
prosperous/'prɒsp(ə)rəs/adj. 繁榮的；興旺的
段落大意：
對於那些居住在倫敦或者曼哈頓郊區的人來說，胡秋萍的火車通勤聽起來可能並不陌生。但是中國的超級區域因三個特徵而與眾不同。首先是規模。目前世界上最大的城市群是大東京地區，約有4千萬人口。而胡秋萍所在的長三角如果完全實現一體化，人口將達到1.5億，差不多是大東京地區的四倍。中國希望打造的五個最大城市群的平均人口是1.1億。這在一定程度上是因為大多數中國城市群的地理面積也會更大。最繁榮的珠三角預計佔地4.2萬平方公里，和整個荷蘭差不多大。
Given that spread, it might seem nonsensicalto talk of the clusters asunifiedentities. But the second point is the speed of transport links,notablythe bullet trains between cities. This expands the viable area of China’s clusters. The Jingjinji region around Beijing has five high-speed train lines today. By 2020 there should be 12 moreintercitylines, and another nine by 2030. Towns that are woven into the networks can see their fortunes change almost overnight. Plans for a new intercity train to Haining, a smaller city in the Yangzi River Delta, partly explain a doubling of house prices there. “The way that we measure distances has changed from space to time,” says Ren Yongsheng of Vantown, a property developer in Haining.
註釋：
nonsensical/nɒn'sensɪk(ə)l/adj. 無意義的；荒謬的
unified/'ju:nifaid/adj. 統一的；一致標準的v. 統一
entities/ˈentitiz/n. 實體；存在
notably/'nəʊtəblɪ/adv. 顯著地；尤其
intercity/ɪntə'sɪtɪ/adj. 城市間的
段落大意：
中國城市群範圍如此之大，將它們說成是統一的整體似乎有些荒謬。但是第二個特徵，即以城際高鐵為突出代表的高速交通系統，拓展了中國城市群的有效覆蓋範圍。目前以北京為中心的京津冀地區有5條高鐵線路。到2020年應該會增加12條城際線路，到2030年再增加9條。那些納入高鐵網絡的城鎮的命運幾乎一夜之間就被改寫。長三角地區的小城市海寧房價翻番，原因之一就是一條新規劃的城際高鐵途經這裡。“我們衡量距離的方式已經從空間變成了時間。”海寧房地產開發商萬通的任永勝（音譯）表示。
The third difference is the top-down nature of the clusters. China is far from alone in wanting to knot cities together. “Cluster policy” has been in vogue in urban planning for years, with governments trying to devise the right mix of infrastructureandincentivesto conjure up the nextSilicon Valley, or something like it. But China has intervened more heavily than most. To encourage people to disperse throughout clusters, it has raised the barriers to obtaining a hukou, or official residency permit, in the wealthiest cities and lowered them in smaller ones nearby.WhereasShanghai is picky about granting permits tomigrants, Nanjing, to its west, has flung its doors open to university graduates. As construction gets under way in Xiong’an, a new city designed torelievepressure on Beijing, efforts to push people out of the capital could become moreaggressive. The scenes of police forcing thousands of migrant workers to leave Beijing last winter might prove to have been a preview.
註釋：
infrastructure/'ɪnfrəstrʌktʃə/n. 基礎設施；公共建設
incentives/ɪn'sɛntɪv/n. 激勵；獎勵；誘因
Silicon Valley硅谷（美國一高科技區名）
Whereas/weər'æz/conj. 然而；鑑於；反之
migrantsn. 移民；移居者
relieve/rɪ'liːv/v. 解除，減輕
aggressive/ə'gresɪv/adj. 侵略性的；好鬥的；有進取心的；有闖勁的
段落大意：
第三個差異是中國城市群“自上而下”的特性。想把多個城市聯結在一起的國家遠不止中國一個。多年來，城市規劃中一直盛行“集群政策”，各國政府試圖想出兼顧基礎設施和激勵機制的良策，再造一個硅谷或類似的集群。但是中國的干預力度超過大多數國家。為了鼓勵人口向周邊城市分流，中國提高了獲得最富裕城市的戶口的難度，同時降低了周邊小城市的落戶門檻。上海對外來人員的落戶審批很挑剔，但它西邊的南京卻向大學畢業生敞開了大門。雄安新區是為緩解北京的壓力而建的一座新城。隨著其建設的推進，政府可能會加大力度讓人們遷出首都。去年冬天，警察強迫成千上萬農民工離開北京或許就是一次預演。
The conceptof city clusters is grounded in the theory ofagglomerationbenefits, which holds that the bigger the city, the more productive it is. A large,integratedlabour market makes it easier for employers to find the right people for the right jobs. As companies gather together, specialised supply chains can take shape. Knowledge also spreads more easily. In advanced countries, the doubling of a city’s population can increase productivity by 2-5%, according to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, a club mostly of rich countries. Studies have found that the potential gains in China are even bigger,perhapsbecause of its cities’ surprising lack ofdensity . Take Guangzhou, one of China’s more crowded cities. If it had the same density as Seoul, it could house an additional 4.2m people on itsexistingland, according to the World Bank.
註釋：
concept/'kɒnsept/n. 觀念，概念
agglomeration/əglɒmə'reɪʃ(ə)n/n. 凝聚；結塊；附聚
integrated/'ɪntɪgreɪtɪd/adj. 綜合的；互相協調的v. 整合
perhaps/pəˈhæps/n. 假定；猜想；adv. 或許
density/'densɪtɪ/n. 密度
existing/ɪɡ'zɪstɪŋ/adj. 目前的；現存的v. 存在
段落大意：
“集聚效益”是城市群概念的理論基礎。該理論認為，城市越大其生產率就越高。僱主在一體化的龐大勞動力市場中更容易找到合適的人做合適的事。隨著企業集聚，專業化供應鏈得以形成。知識也更容易傳播。成員主要為富裕國家的經合組織（OECD）的數據顯示，在發達國家，城市人口每翻一番，生產率就可以提高2%到5%。而研究發現，中國的潛在收益甚至更高，原因或許是這裡的城市人口密度出人意料地偏低。以中國人口較為密集的廣州為例，根據世界銀行的數據，如果廣州的人口密度達到首爾的水平，那麼它現有的土地上還可以再容納420萬人。
But China’s government has long resistedtheemergenceof truemegacities. It aims to prevent the population of its two biggest cities, Beijing and Shanghai, fromexceeding23m and 25m,respectively, in 2035—little bigger than they are today. City clusters are aworkaround. In the jargon of urban planners, they represent “borrowed size”: cities can,in principle, have the benefits of agglomeration with fewer of the downsides such ascongestion. Alain Bertaud of New York University says that, if integrated well, China’s city clusters could, thanks to their size, achieve levels of productivity never seen in other countries. He says it would be comparable to the differences between England and the rest of the world during the Industrial Revolution.
註釋：
resistedv. 反抗；耐（resist的過去分詞）adj. 受到抵抗的
emergence/ɪ'mɜːdʒ(ə)ns/n. 出現，浮現；發生
megacities/ˈmɛɡəˌsɪtɪ/n. 大城市
exceeding/ɪk'siːdɪŋ; ek-/v. 超過；adj. 超越的；非常的
respectively/rɪ'spektɪvlɪ/adv. 分別地；各自地，獨自地
workaround /'wə:kə,raund/n. 工作區；變通方案
in principle大體上，原則上
congestion/kən'dʒestʃ(ə)n/n. 擁擠；擁塞
段落大意：
但是中國政府長期以來一直在遏制真正的超大城市出現。它力爭將北京和上海兩個最大城市的人口在2035年分別控制在2300萬和2500萬以內，與現在相差無幾。城市集群是一種變通方案。用城市規劃者的行話來說就是“借用規模”，即原則上城市可以享有集聚帶來的好處，而減少擁堵等不利因素。紐約大學的阿蘭·貝爾託（Alain Bertaud）指出，中國的城市群規模龐大，如果融合得好，生產率可能會達到其他國家前所未有的水平。他表示，這將堪比工業革命期間英國和世界其他國家間的差距。
This vision of hyper-productive Chinese clusters is a pipe dream for now. The government first mentionedcity clusters as a development strategy in 2006. It was not until 2016 that it elaborated the concept. Of its 19identifiedclusters, just a few have published detailed plans so far. The gap between talk and policy remains vast. Officials have called for more region-wide governance, a welcome change from themunicipalturf battles that have bedevilled China. In January the Yangzi River Delta areaestablishedan office for regionalco-ordination, the first of its kind. But it is a
bureaucraticminnow, with little more than adozenemployees. Stefan Rau of the Asian Development Bank says it is essential that regional offices have power overbudgetsif they are to play a useful role.註釋：
mentionedv. 提到（mention的過去式）adj. 提及的，提到的
identified/aɪ'dentɪfaɪd/v. 鑑定（identify的過去分詞）；辨認adj. 被識別的
municipal/mjʊ'nɪsɪp(ə)l/adj. 市政的，市的；地方自治的
established/ɪ'stæblɪʃt/adj. 確定的；已制定的
co-ordination/kəu,ɔ:di'neiʃn/n. 協調；配合
bureaucratic/,bjɔːrə'krætɪk;/adj. 官僚的；官僚政治的
dozen/'dʌz(ə)n/n. 十二個，一打adj. 一打的
employees /ˌemplɔɪˈi:z/n. 員工；[勞經] 僱員；從業人員
budgetsn. [財政] 預算（budget複數形式）v. 為…做預算
段落大意：
目前來看，希望中國城市群帶來超高生產率的願景還只是空想。政府在2006年首次提出打造城市群的發展戰略，但直到2016年才詳盡闡述了這一概念。在確定的19個城市群中，至今只有少數幾個公佈了具體規劃。從討論到政策出臺仍相去甚遠。官員們呼籲更加區域化的治理，這對於地方長期上演勢力範圍之爭的中國來說是個可喜的變化。1月，長三角地區成立了首個區域合作辦公室，但卻是個微不足道、只有十幾名工作人員的行政機構。亞洲開發銀行的斯特凡·勞（Stefan Rau）指出，如果區域辦公室要切實發揮作用，就必須有財務預算權。
Lustrous clusters
Evidenceabout economicgainsfromclusteringin China is promising, if limited. Counties enjoy a 6% boost in productivity from being tied into the Yangzi super-region, according to an article published last year in the Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy. But the researchers found few such gains in other regions. That might be because they looked at old data. A more recent study, published in April by the National Bureau of Economic Research in America, supported the idea of big knowledgespillovers in super-regions. When cities were connected by high-speed rail, thequantityandqualityof academicpapersby local researchers increased by nearly a third, according to the authors.
註釋：
Evidence/'evɪd(ə)ns/n. 證據，證明；跡象
gains/'ɡeɪnz/n. 收益；[經] 利益v. 獲得；增加
clustering/'klʌstərɪŋ/n. 聚集，收集；分類歸併v. 使成群
spilloversn. 外溢；過多人口（spillover的複數形式）
quantity/'kwɒntɪtɪ/n. 量，數量
quality/ˈkwɒlətɪ/n. 質量，[統計] 品質；特性adj. 優質的
papers/'peipəz/n. 文件；論文數
段落大意：
群城閃亮
關於中國城市群帶來的經濟收益，證據雖有限，卻顯露出樂觀的前景。《亞太經濟雜誌》（Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy）去年發表的一篇文章指出，劃入長三角超級區域的各縣生產率提高了6%。但研究人員幾乎沒有發現其他地區有如此收益。也許他們參看的是舊數據。美國國家經濟研究局（National Bureau of Economic Research）4月發佈的一項更新的研究成果支持了超級區域知識大溢出的觀點。根據作者的說法，城市之間通過高鐵相連之後，區內研究人員學術論文的數量和質量都提升了近三分之一。
Sceptics, however, note that the most successful clusters tend not to be creations of the government. As China’s economy hasmodernised, thetendencytowardsconcentrationhas beenirresistible, especially incoastalareas. Some towns have specialised in electronics, others in the clothing industry and so on. There has also been much moremigrationto the coast than to other regions. It is the clusters that have coalescednaturally, especially the deltas of the Pearl and Yangzi rivers, that have the brightestprospects.
註釋：
Scepticsn. 懷疑論者（sceptic的複數）；持懷疑態度的人
modernised/'mɒdənaɪz/v. 現代化（等於modernize）； 使…現代化
tendency/'tend(ə)nsɪ/n. 傾向，趨勢
concentration/kɒns(ə)n'treɪʃ(ə)n/n. 濃度；集中；專心
irresistible/ɪrɪ'zɪstɪb(ə)l/adj. 不可抵抗的；不能壓制的
coastal/'kəʊstl/adj. 沿海的；海岸的
migration/maɪ'greɪʃ(ə)n/n. 遷移；移民；移動
naturally/'nætʃ(ə)rəlɪ/adv. 自然地；輕而易舉
prospect/'prɒspekt/. 前途；預期；景色
段落大意：
然而質疑者指出，最成功的城市群往往不是政府規劃的產物。隨著中國經濟的現代化，集聚已勢不可擋，特別是在沿海地區。有些城鎮專門製造電子產品，有些側重製衣業，等等。向沿海地區的人口流入也遠遠高於其他地區。自然形成的城市群，特別是珠三角和長三角，前景最為光明。
Beyond these coastal conurbations, theoutlookis dimmer. Several of the 19designatedclusters seemfanciful. An economic zone linking Nanning, a poor provincial capital, to Haikou, a port on Hainan island, some 500km and a ferry crossing away, is unlikely toamountto much. The proposed cluster in the middle reaches of the Yangzi, aterritorylarger than Poland, is too expansive to make sense. Even within promising areas, government plans can becounter-productive. Beijing could benefit from shifting some of its universities and businesses to other cities in the Jingjinji region. But he has decided that anentirelynew city, Xiong’an, should be created, some 100km away. A similar development closer to Beijing would have a better shot at success.
註釋：
conurbations/ˌkɒnɜːˈbeɪʃn/n. 衛星城；（幾個鄰近的城市因擴建而形成一個）組合城市
outlook/'aʊtlʊk/n. 展望；觀點；景色
designated/'deziɡ,neitid/adj. 指定的；特指的
fanciful/'fænsɪfʊl/adj. 想象的；稀奇的
amount/ə'maʊnt/n. 數量；總額，總數
territory /'terɪt(ə)rɪ/n. 領土，領域；範圍
counter-productive/,kauntə prə'dʌktiv/adj. 產生相反效果的
entirely/ɪn'taɪəlɪ; en-/adv. 完全地，徹底地
段落大意：
除了那些沿海都市圈，其餘的前景就沒那麼樂觀了。19個劃定的城市群中有幾個似乎是異想天開。比如連接南寧與海口的經濟圈就不大可能成什麼氣候。前者是一個貧窮的省會城市，後者是海南島的港口，兩地相隔約500公里，依靠渡輪往來。而位於長江中游區域的城市群面積比波蘭還大，要在這麼廣大的區域內打造集群並不合理。即使是在前景不錯的地區，政府規劃也可能適得其反。將北京的部分高校和企業遷到京津冀地區的其他城市可能會讓北京受益。但是He卻決定要在距北京大約100公里的地方建造一個全新的城市雄安。如果是在離北京更近的地方建這麼一個類似的開發區，成功的幾率可能會更大些。
The main concern for those trying to lead productive lives across the vast super-regions is more mundane: how easy it is to get from A to B. The governmentclassifiesclusters as “one-hour economic zones” or “two-hour economic zones”, depending on the time it takes to cross the cluster by high-speed rail. But it often takes longer to get to train stations within cities than to travel by train between cities. Ding Shu works in Shanghai and lives in Kunshan, a
satellitetown linked to Shanghai by a subway. Factoring in her bus ride to the subway, security checks to enter the station, walking time and waiting time, she spends about four hours a day commuting. She says she is thinking about looking for a job closer to home. New rail lines to Shanghai mighteventuallyhelp. But for now, Ms Ding sees herself as avictimof urban sprawl, not thedenizenof aseamlesscity cluster.註釋：
mundane/'mʌndeɪn/adj. 世俗的，平凡的；世界的
classifies/'klæsɪfaɪ/vt. 分類；分等
satellite/'sætəlaɪt/n. 衛星；人造衛星
eventually/ɪ'ventʃʊəlɪ/adv. 最後，終於
victim/'vɪktɪm/. 受害人；犧牲品
denizen/'denɪz(ə)n/n. 居民；外來語；外籍居民
seamless/'siːmlɪs/adj. 無縫的
段落大意：
對於那些想在廣闊超級區域有所作為的人來說，他們最關心一個更現實的問題：從甲地到乙地有多便捷。根據乘坐高鐵橫穿城市群所花的時間，政府將城市群分為“一小時經濟圈”或“兩小時經濟圈”。但是趕往一個城市的火車站常常比乘火車去到另一個城市花費的時間還要多。丁舒（音譯）在上海工作，住在與上海有地鐵相連的衛星城崑山。如果把乘巴士去地鐵站、進站安檢、步行和等車這些時間都算進去，她每天的通勤時間大約為4小時。她說自己正在考慮找一份離家更近些的工作。通往上海的新鐵路線可能最終會改善這種狀況。但就目前而言，丁舒認為自己是城市擴張的受害者，而不是無縫連接的城市群的居民。
注：本期泛讀文章選自20180623期經濟學人，譯文選自經濟學人商論2018年7月期。
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