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编者按：环球时报英文版4月17日刊发“变局”专栏第33篇，作者中国人民大学重阳金融研究院执行院长王文期待这场新冠疫情的深刻教训，能够产生新的文艺复兴，带领人类走进新的、以生态安全、人的安全为重心的新文明。
本文英文版在Global Times的版面截图
在埃塞俄比亚国家博物馆，最著名的展览品是叫“露西”的人类最早骨骼化石，据今约320万。她被称为人类的祖母。我三次去参观，都在这个展柜前驻足，希望能提醒自己常怀谦卑之心。
如果把地球46亿年历史浓缩为24小时，人类是最后2秒钟才出现的新生物。遗憾的是，人类总是狂妄到想征服地球，既忘了自己是地球的寄生者，也忽视了自己身体上的寄生物随时会摧毁和重塑人类。
从雅典斯巴达争霸到罗马帝国崩溃，从14世纪黑死病肆虐重塑欧洲教会体系到17世纪三十年战争的惨烈，从1812年拿破仑远征莫斯科失败到1918年西班牙大流感导致1亿人的死亡，人类历史上那些重大的国家兴衰、文明再造事件背后都是那些看不到瘟疫、天花、麻疹、伤寒等传染病毒。在被霍布斯鲍姆称为“极端年代”的20世纪，战争死亡了1.1亿人，而传染病导致14亿人的死亡。
很可惜，几乎所有政治、经济、社会、军事学科的最聪明大脑们都在研究世界变局时集体忽视了传染病这个变量。教授们总是希望去总结归纳那些看似有规律性的影响因素，而传染病的不可琢磨性，成了社会科学研究界被刻意回避的变量。
从这个角度看，我倒期望这次新冠疫情能够唤醒人类的敬畏心，尤其是重塑社会科学界最聪明大脑们研究传染病未来冲击力的新范式。
20世纪以来，人类疯狂地追求经济发展，导致了人类需求与地球供给的失衡。森林、荒原、草地、高山、湖泊都被无情地破坏，原始生态系统中寄生的病菌被释放，形成了对人类前所未有的报复。资料显示，过去半个世纪以来，新出现的30多种新型传染病（如艾滋病等），每年造成了全球国民生产总值超过2%以上的冲击，实际上是抹平了各国试图通过财政、金融、投资等政策形成的经济增长成果。
糟糕的是，人口激增与迁移加速，包括旅游、留学等的人口全球化，打破了原有的空间平衡感，极大加速了病毒传播。每天约有300万人跨越国界，病毒的传播速度超过想象。1918年西班牙大流感，病毒传播地球一圈需要半年；而现在，新冠病毒传播至地球的每个角落只需要几天。
人们以为科学的进步可以宣告传染病的灭绝，实际的情况是，病毒变异正在产生对人类研发新抗生素的抗药性。目前数百万医务人员与医学家们都在聚焦新冠病毒，但人们惊愕地发现，病毒在变异，疫苗与特效药的发明显得困难重重。
令我担心的是，新冠疫情可能正在迎来第三波震中的爆发。在第一波以东亚为震中的疫情得到基本控制、第二波以欧美为震中的疫情即将峰值之后，非洲、南亚居住着超过30亿人口的区域可能成为新的震中。很难想象，那些贫困人口更多、人口更为密集、医疗设备更缺乏的发展中国家与地区，该如何应对大规模的疫情？
现在，人类需要的不仅是国家治理能力的革命，让那些政府行为、地方治理方式出现应对公共卫生危机的转型与调整，帮助更多贫困地区能尽可能避免成为病毒的温床，还需要全球治理观念的范式与思维革命。
很明显，那些仅关注国界安全的思维是有局限的。在疫情的全球灾难之前，相互指责，同样显得短视。
以下为英文版
Post-pandemic may be more enlightened era
The National Museum of Ethiopia's most famous exhibit is Lucy, a 3.2 million-year-old fossil skeleton of an ancestor to humans. I've visited her three times and each time I would stop and remind myself to remain humble.
If we condense the 4.6 billion years of the earth's history into 24 hours, humans only emerged in the last two seconds. Regrettably, human behavior is so unbridled as if they are conqueror to the earth. They forget they are the parasites of the earth, and ignore that the parasites in their own bodies that could destroy them.
From the Peloponnesian War to the collapse of the Roman Empire, from the Black Death pandemic that reshaped the course of European religion in the 14th century to the Thirty Years' War of the 17th century, from the failure of Napoleon's invasion of Russia in 1812 to the 1918 Spanish flu that caused the death of 100 million people, these major historical events led to the rise and fall of countries and the reconstruction of civilizations and all were ended by invisible viruses. During the 20th century - labeled "The ages of extremes" by British Marxist Eric Hobsbawm - 110 million people were killed in wars, while infectious diseases took the lives of more than 1.4 billion.
Pitifully, when all the world's smartest brains in politics, economics, sociology and military cast their focus on changing world patterns, they ignore infectious diseases as a major factor. Professors often summarize the obvious factors that have caused transformative change, while the intrinsic nature of infectious diseases, an unpredictable factor, is deliberately neglected.
In this regard, I expect to see the awe of humanity aroused by the pandemic, and new paradigms of research on the impact of infectious diseases. Since the 20th century, nature has been subjected to humanity's excessive zeal for economic development, which has resulted in an imbalance between human needs and desires, and what the earth can supply. The natural environment has been ruthlessly plundered, and some bacteria, which are part of the original ecosystem, have been released and are taking vengeance on the human race.
Over the past decades, dozens of new infectious diseases have caused considerable global economic losses, erasing the economic growth obtained by many countries using various fiscal, financial and investment policies.
What's worse, the population explosion and the increasing ability of humans to travel have greatly accelerated the spread of viruses. Each day millions of people move across national borders, spreading a virus faster than anyone ever could have imagined. The 1918 influenza pandemic took half a year to spread around the globe, but just 100 years later the coronavirus needed only a few weeks to gain a foothold in just about every corner of the earth.
Many people believe that the advancement of science will be able to declare the death of infectious diseases. But viruses continue to mutate to become resistant to new antibiotics developed by humans. Millions of medical staff and scientists are now fully focused on the coronavirus, and are surprised to find how the virus is mutating, making the development of vaccines and special drugs appears to be increasingly more difficult.
What worries me is that a third epicenter of COVID-19 may appear.
What humanity now needs is not only a revolution in national governance capacity. We need transformation and adjustment of government behavior and local governance methods to deal with public health crises. We need to help more poverty-stricken areas to avoid becoming a hotbed of viruses. Moreover, we need a revolution in the concept and mind-set of global governance.
Obviously, focusing only on one's national borders is limited. It's also shortsighted to play the blame game during a global pandemic. Infectious diseases are no longer a simple medical problem, nor a problem of one country. Instead, it is a problem of global ideology. When facing the spread of the Black Death, humans rethought their relations with the world, which lead to the Renaissance and produced modern civilization.
I look forward to learning the profound lessons of COVID-19 and hope it will lead to a new Renaissance that brings us a new civilization that focuses on ecological and human safety.
The author is professor and executive dean of Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies at Renmin University of China, and executive director of China-US People-to-People Exchange Research Center. His latest book is Great Power's Long March Road.
《数字中国：区块链、智能革命与国家治理的未来》（王文 刘玉书 著）中信出版社（请点击购买）
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中国人民大学重阳金融研究院（人大重阳）成立于2013年1月19日，是重阳投资董事长裘国根先生向母校捐赠并设立教育基金运营的主要资助项目。
作为中国特色新型智库，人大重阳聘请了全球数十位前政要、银行家、知名学者为高级研究员，旨在关注现实、建言国家、服务人民。目前，人大重阳下设7个部门、运营管理4个中心(生态金融研究中心、全球治理研究中心、中美人文交流研究中心、中俄人文交流研究中心)。近年来，人大重阳在金融发展、全球治理、大国关系、宏观政策等研究领域在国内外均具有较高认可度。
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