芒格:我的家族財產為什麼交給李錄管理

來源:《文明、現代化、價值投資與中國》序

查理·芒格


為什麼李錄如此成功?我覺得部分原因在於,他可以說是中國的沃倫·巴菲特。這點幫助很大。另一部分原因是他在中國市場“捕魚”,而不是在競爭激烈的美國市場——這裡已經被過度捕撈,漁民太多了。

中國市場上還存在一些無知和惰性認知的盲點,因此為他創造了不尋常的機會。捕魚的第一條規則:“去有魚的地方捕魚。”捕魚的第二條規則:“千萬別忘了第一條規則。”李錄恰好去了魚很多的地方捕魚。我們其他人就像那些鱈魚漁民一樣,試圖去已經被過度捕撈的地方尋找鱈魚。當競爭太激烈時,你再努力工作也無濟於事。

芒格:我的家族財產為什麼交給李錄管理

問:您在李錄身上看到了什麼和其他中國投資人不同的地方?從他的傳記來看,他更像是個局外人。他和託德·康姆斯、特德·韋施勒(這兩位是伯克希爾·哈撒韋公司的投資官)有哪些相似和不同之處?去年您和李錄一起接受中國媒體採訪的原因是什麼?

芒格:我接受採訪是因為李錄叫上了我。有時候我會做這樣的事,在這方面我有些“愚蠢”。採訪中我只是如實回答了那些問題,說出自己真實的想法。答案就是李錄不是常人,他是中國的沃倫·巴菲特。他非常有天分。當然,我也喜歡批評他,但這是我們之間相處的樂趣所在。

我今年已經95歲了。95年裡,我把芒格家族的財產交給外人管理僅此一例。結果如何呢?不用猜也知道,這就是李錄,他已經本壘打直接得分了。這太了不起了,也是極其罕見的。從此以後,有了李錄的先例,我還會挑選別人嗎?順便說一句,這是一種很好的決策方式,我們在工作中也是如此。如果我們找到一樣東西,能讓我們大有所為,那我們對那些比不上它的東西就不必再看了。這樣可以大大簡化生活,因為比李錄更出色的人寥寥無幾。所以我只需要靜坐著等待。花些時間安靜地坐著等待——這看似無為的做法卻充滿了智慧。相比之下,很多人都太過於活躍了。

問:很多人都會問您如何決定要做什麼投資或交易,您的答案是這是一個比較快的過程。我的問題是,您如何判斷一位基金經理或一家公司的管理層是否具有優秀的人格和誠信?您需要多長時間能做出判斷?您會在他們身上尋找哪些特質?

芒格:現在我找到了李錄,我不會再去找別人了。所以你向我提這個問題是找錯人了。找到比李錄更出色的人的概率有多少呢?所以對我來說,做這個決定非常容易。回到你的問題——你需要的是李錄,但我不知道去哪裡再給你找一個。

李錄個人簡介

著名投資人,1997年底創辦喜馬拉雅資本,任喜馬拉雅資本管理公司創始人及董事長。近年來,李錄致力於價值投資理論在中國的踐行,2015年和2019年,他在北大光華管理學院分別作了《價值投資在中國的展望》與《價值投資的知行合一》著名演講。

以下是英文原版:

Charlie Munger’s Words on Li Lu

Whydoes Li Lu succeed so mightily? Well partly he’s sort of a Chinese WarrenBuffet. That really helps. And partly he’s fishing in China! Not in thisover-searched, over-populated, highly competitive American market, and there’sstill pockets of ignorance and lassitude in China that gave him so unusualopportunities. The first rule in fishing has always been fish where the fishare. And the second rule of fishing has always been ‘Don’t forget rule numberone’. And Li Lu just went where the fishing was good and the rest of us arelike cod fishermen who are trying to catch cod where the fish have been fishedout. It doesn’t matter how much you work, when there’s that much competition.

What did you see in LiLu versus other investors in China? Because in his biography it looks like he’smore of an outsider. And how similar or different is he versus Todd Combs andTed Weschler? And Is there any reason why you gave that interview last yearwith Li Lu in China?

Idid it because he asked me and I sometimes do that, I am foolish that way. AndI said what I believed when they asked me the questions. The answer is Li Lu isnot a normal…He’s the Chinese Warren Buffet. He’s very talented. Of course I’veenjoyed bagging him, but it’s interesting that way…I’m ninety five years…I’vegiven Munger money to some outsider to run once in ninety five years. And it’sLi Lu, and of course he’s hit it out of the park. It’s very remarkable but it’salso pretty picky. And of course once I’ve got Li Lu if I’m comparing to him,who else am I going to pick? And by the way that’s a good way to make decisionsand that’s what we do. If we’ve got one thing we can do more of, we’re notinterested in anything that’s not better than that. That simplifies life agreat deal because there aren’t that many people better than Li Lu. So I justsit. It’s amazing how intelligent it is to spend some time just sitting. A lotof people are way too active.

A lot of people ask howyou determine what investment or deal to do, and you tell people that you cando this fairly quickly. My question is how do you tell if a money manager ormanagement of a company has the right character or the right integrity? Howlong does it take you to do that and what are some traits that you look for?

I found Li Lu I don’tlook for anybody else. So I’m the wrong person. What are my chances I’m goingto get somebody better than Li Lu. So it’s very easy for me. What you need is aLi Lu and I don’t know how to get you one.



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