很多朋友問我在美國是否帶口罩？是否要隔離？我今天發一篇文章，讓大家看看國外媒體是如何介紹冠狀病毒對生活的影響的。
文章標題是：Coronavirus: Ten reasons why you ought not to panic
Regardless of whether we classify the new coronavirus as a pandemic, it is a serious issue. In less than two months, it has spread over several continents. Pandemic means sustained and continuous transmission of the disease, simultaneously in more than three different geographical regions. Pandemic does not refer to the lethality of a virus but to its transmissibility and geographical extension.
What we certainly have is a pandemic of fear. The entire planet’s media is gripped by coronavirus. It is right that there is deep concern and mass planning for worst-case scenarios. And, of course, the repercussions move from the global health sphere into business and politics.
But it is also right that we must not panic. It would be wrong to say there is good news coming out of COVID-19, but there are causes for optimism; reasons to think there may be ways to contain and defeat the virus. And lessons to learn for the future.
1. We know what it is我們知道這是什麼
The first cases of AIDS were described in June 1981 and it took more than two years to identify the virus (HIV) causing the disease. With COVID-19, the first cases of severe pneumonia were reported in China on December 31, 2019 and by January 7 the virus had already been identified. The genome was available on day 10.
1981年6月描述了第一批艾滋病病例，並且花費了兩年多的時間才鑑定出引起該疾病的病毒（HIV）。使用COVID-19，中國於2019年12月31日報告了首例嚴重肺炎，到1月7日，該病毒已被鑑定出。基因組在第10天可用。
We already know that it is a new coronavirus from group 2B, of the same family as SARS, which we have called SARSCoV2. The disease is called COVID-19. It is thought to be related to coronavirus from bats. Genetic analyses have confirmed it has a recent natural origin (between the end of November and the beginning of December) and that, although viruses live by mutating, its mutation rate may not be very high.
我們已經知道這是來自2B組的新冠狀病毒，與SARS屬於同一家族，我們稱之為SARSCoV2。該疾病稱為COVID-19。據認為與蝙蝠的冠狀病毒有關。遺傳分析已證實其具有最近的自然起源（在11月底至12月初之間），儘管病毒通過突變而存活，但其突變率可能不是很高。
2. We know how to detect the virus我們知道如何檢測病毒
Since January 13, a test to detect the virus has been available.
自1月13日以來，已經可以進行檢測病毒的測試。
3. The situation is improving in China中國的情況正在改善
The strong control and isolation measures imposed by China are paying off. For several weeks now, the number of cases diagnosed every day is decreasing. A very detailed epidemiological follow-up is being carried out in other countries; outbreaks are very specific to areas, which can allow them to be controlled more easily.
中國實施的強有力的控制和隔離措施正在獲得回報。現在已經有幾個星期了，每天診斷出的病例數正在減少。其他國家正在進行非常詳細的流行病學記錄；疫情非常針對特定地區，因此可以更輕鬆地控制疫情。
4. 80% of cases are mild 80％的病例為輕度
The disease causes no symptoms or is mild in 81% of cases. Of course, in 14% it can cause severe pneumonia and in 5% it can become critical or even fatal. It is still unclear what the death rate may be. But it could be lower than some estimates so far.
該病在81％的病例中不引起症狀或輕度。當然，有14％的人會引起嚴重的肺炎，有5％的人會變得嚴重甚至致命。目前尚不清楚死亡率是多少。但這可能會低於目前的一些估計。
5. People recover治癒人群
Much of the reported data relates to the increase in the number of confirmed cases and the number of deaths, but most infected people are cured. There are 13 times more cured cases than deaths, and that proportion is increasing.
報告的許多數據與確診病例數和死亡人數的增加有關，但大多數感染者已治癒。治癒的病例是死亡的13倍，而且這一比例正在增加。
Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases by Johns Hopkins CSSE
6. Symptoms appear mild in children兒童症狀輕微
Only 3% of cases occur in people under 20, and mortality under 40 is only 0.2%. Symptoms are so mild in children it can go unnoticed.
只有3％的病例發生在20歲以下的人群中，而40歲以下的死亡率僅為0.2％。小兒症狀很輕，可能不被注意。
7. The virus can be wiped clean病毒可以清洗
The virus can be effectively inactivated from surfaces with a solution of ethanol (62-71% alcohol), hydrogen peroxide (0.5% hydrogen peroxide) or sodium hypochlorite (0.1% bleach), in just one minute. Frequent handwashing with soap and water is the most effective way to avoid contagion.
只需一分鐘，即可用乙醇（62-71％酒精），過氧化氫（0.5％過氧化氫）或次氯酸鈉（0.1％漂白劑）溶液從表面有效滅活病毒。經常用肥皂和水洗手是避免傳染的最有效方法。
8. Science is on it, globally全球的科學技術
It is the age of international science cooperation. After just over a month, 164 articles could be accessed in PubMed on COVID19 or SARSCov2, as well as many others available in repositories of articles not yet reviewed. They are preliminary works on vaccines, treatments, epidemiology, genetics and phylogeny, diagnosis, clinical aspects, etc.
這是國際科學合作的時代。在一個多月後，可以在PubMed上通過COVID19或SARSCov2訪問164篇文章，以及尚未查看的文章庫中的許多其他文章。它們是疫苗，治療，流行病學，遺傳學和系統發育，診斷，臨床方面等方面的前期工作。
These articles were written by some 700 authors, distributed throughout the planet. It is cooperative science, shared and open. In 2003, with the SARS epidemic, it took more than a year to reach less than half that number of articles. In addition, most scientific journals have left their publications as open access on the subject of coronaviruses.
這些文章由大約700位作者撰寫，分佈在地球上。它是合作科學，共享而開放。 2003年，隨著SARS的流行，花了不到一年的時間才達到文章數量的不到一半。此外，大多數科學雜誌都將其出版物作為冠狀病毒主題的開放獲取。
9. There are already vaccine prototypes 已經有疫苗原型
Our ability to design new vaccines is spectacular. There are already more than eight projects underway seeking a vaccine against the new coronavirus. There are groups that work on vaccination projects against similar viruses.
我們設計新疫苗的能力非常出色。已經有八個以上的項目正在尋求針對新型冠狀病毒的疫苗。有一些小組致力於類似病毒的疫苗接種項目。
The vaccine group of the University of Queensland, in Australia, has announced it is already working on a prototype using the technique called “molecular clamp”, a novel technology. This is just one example that could allow vaccine production in record time. Prototypes may soon be tested on humans.
澳大利亞昆士蘭大學（University of Queensland）的疫苗小組已經宣佈，它已經在使用一種名為“分子鉗”的新技術研究原型。這只是一個例子，可以在創紀錄的時間內生產疫苗。原型可能很快會在人類身上進行測試。
10. Antiviral trials are underway抗病毒試驗正在進行中
Vaccines are preventive. Right now, the treatment of people who are already sick is important. There are already more than 80 clinical trials analysing coronavirus treatments. These are antivirals that have been used for other infections, which are already approved and that we know are safe.
疫苗是預防性的。目前，對已經生病的人的治療很重要。已經有超過80項分析冠狀病毒治療的臨床試驗。這些是已用於其他感染的抗病毒藥物，這些藥物已被批准並且我們知道是安全的。
One of those that has already been tested in humans is remdesivir, a broad-spectrum antiviral still under study, which has been tested against Ebola and SARS/MERS.
remdesivir是已經在人體中進行測試的藥物之一，remdesivir是一種仍在研究中的廣譜抗病毒藥物，已經針對埃博拉病毒和SARS / MERS進行了測試。
Another candidate is chloroquine, an antimalarial that has also been seen to have potent antiviral activity. It is known that chloroquine blocks viral infection by increasing the pH of the endosome, which is needed for the fusion of the virus with the cell, thus inhibiting its entry. It has been demonstrated that this compound blocks the new coronavirus in vitro and it is already being used in patients with coronavirus pneumonia.
另一個候選藥物是氯喹，一種抗瘧疾藥物，也被認為具有有效的抗病毒活性。已知氯喹通過增加內體的pH來阻止病毒感染，這是病毒與細胞融合所必需的，從而抑制其進入。已經證明該化合物在體外阻斷新的冠狀病毒，並且已經用於冠狀病毒性肺炎患者中。
Other proposed trials are based on the use of oseltamivir (which is used against the influenza virus), interferon-1b (protein with antiviral function), antisera from people who recovered or monoclonal antibodies to neutralise the virus. New therapies have been proposed with inhibitory substances, such as baricitinibine, selected by artificial intelligence.
其他擬議的試驗基於使用奧司他韋（用於抵抗流感病毒），干擾素-1b（具有抗病毒功能的蛋白質），來自康復人群的抗血清或單克隆抗體來中和該病毒。已經提出了用人工智能選擇的抑制性物質，例如baricitinibine的新療法。
The 1918 flu pandemic caused more than 25 million deaths in less than 25 weeks. Could something similar happen now? Probably not; we have never been better prepared to fight a pandemic.
1918年的流感大流行在不到25周的時間內造成了2500萬人死亡。現在會發生類似的事情嗎？可能不會;我們從來沒有更好地準備戰鬥。
作者：Ignacio López-Goñi
Catedrático de Microbiología, Universidad de Navarra
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