How the fourth industrial revolution will change the world
第四次工業革命將如何改變世界
Automation and artificial intelligence will shape social and economic development for the next generation.
自動化和人工智能將影響下一代的社會和經濟發展。
In 2016, the World Economic Forum in Davos chose “Mastering the Fourth Industrial Revolution” as its theme. It was one of the first public uses of a term that has quickly entered the mainstream.
2016年達沃斯世界經濟論壇以“掌控第四次工業革命”為主題，“第四次工業革命”一詞一經使用，便迅速進入大眾視野。
△韓國DRC-HUBO機器人，適用於災難恢復
達沃斯位於瑞士東南部格里松斯地區，靠近奧地利邊境。這個小鎮舉世聞名，倒不全是因為它是個滑雪勝地，而是因為一年一度的世界經濟論壇在這裡舉行，相形之下，“歐洲最大的高山滑雪場”的頭銜就不那麼引人注目了。
As a catch-all description of a wave of disruptive new technologies, some already in the wild and others in the pipeline, it brings together a diverse collection of products and services with the potential to change not just industry but wider society. They include 5G networks, Wi-Fi 6, the internet of things (IoT), autonomous vehicles, artificial intelligence and machine learning, renewable power, 3D printing, blockchain finance, robotics, nanotechnology, quantum computing and biotechnology.
這場顛覆性新技術的浪潮涉及各個領域，其中一些新技術已經開始投入使用，而另一些則正在醞釀中。第四次工業革命彙集了各種各樣的產品和服務，將不僅改變整個行業，甚至還會改變整個社會。這些新技術包括5G網絡、Wi-Fi 6、物聯網、自動駕駛、人工智能、機器學習、可再生能源、3D打印、區塊鏈金融、量子計算和生物技術。
Wi-Fi 6（原稱：802.11.ax），是Wi-Fi標準的名稱。Wi-Fi 6將允許與多達8個設備通信，最高速率可達9.6Gbps。2019年9月16日，Wi-Fi聯盟宣佈啟動Wi-Fi 6認證計劃。
These technologies are already reshaping the labour market and our lives. To give just a few examples:
技術正慢慢改變勞動力市場和人們的日常生活，僅舉幾個例子：
In classrooms, children are learning from online software. Human teachers step in to help them with the parts they struggle to understand, once those have been identified by the app.
學生在課堂上通過在線軟件學習，軟件一旦識別到學生難以理解的部分，將由真人老師幫助解答。
In warehouses, robots can locate, pick and transport items without any human intervention.
倉庫中的機器人在沒有任何人工干預的情況下定位，揀選和運輸物品。
△分揀機器人
Police and private companies in the UK are using AI to look for the faces of criminals in crowds. Acourt ruled in September that doing so is not a breach of human rights.
警察和私人保安公司使用人工智能在人群中尋找罪犯者的面孔。2019年9月，英國法院裁定這樣做並不違反人權。
Legal firms now sit new clients in front of software which asks them a series of questions and drafts documents appropriately. In some cases, doctors can be replaced withadiagnostic algorithm and a nurse.
現在，律師事務所將新客戶的信息輸入相應軟件，客戶在軟件上回答一系列問題後，軟件就可以草擬出方案。在某些情況下，通過診斷算法和護士協作就可以代替醫生。
Are the robots coming for our jobs?
機器人將取代我們的工作嗎？
The fourth industrial revolution (or 4IR) is already creating ethical and legal problems, the greatest of which may be the fear that robots are coming for our jobs. A 2017 report by global management consultants McKinsey said that as many as 800 million workers worldwide could be “displaced” by changing technologies between 2017 and 2030.
第四次工業革命已經帶來了諸多道德、法律問題，其中最大的問題可能就是擔心機器人將取代人類的工作。全球管理顧問麥肯錫公司在2017年發佈的一份報告中說，在2017年至2030年之間，不斷進步的技術可能會“取代”全球8億工人。
麥肯錫公司是一所管理諮詢公司，營運重點是為企業或政府的高層幹部獻策、針對龐雜的經營問題給予適當的解決方案，有“顧問界的高盛”之稱。
Already, according to Professor Andrew Scott of the London Business School, “thousands of jobs in financial services have gone as transactions have moved online.” Soon, he predicts, “people in marketing may find the tasks they perform being taken over by AI and new technologies could lay waste to a host of back-office jobs such as processing information for accounts or handling legal documents.” It sounds like bad news, but it’s not the whole story.
倫敦商學院的安德魯•斯科特（Andrew Scott）教授已經表示，“隨著交易轉移到網上，數以千計的金融服務工作崗位已經消失。”他預測，很快，“市場營銷人員可能會發現自己的工作被人工智能取代，而且新技術可能會免去大量後臺工作，例如處理帳戶信息或處理法律文件。”這似乎是個壞消息，但還不是全部。
What we can learn from spreadsheets
我們從電子表格中得到的啟示
For the BBC’s 50 Things That Made the Modern Economy, economist Tim Harford examined the rise of VisiCalc, the first computer spreadsheet program, which was released in 1979 and quickly replaced paper-based spreadsheets that clerks had needed to manually recalculate. It was a breakthrough for firms with complicated accounts–but would it be a disaster for accounting clerks? Yes and no.
經濟學家提姆·哈福德（Tim Harford）在其BBC系列叢書《塑造現代經濟的五十項發明》中提到，1979年，第一套電子表格軟件VisiCalc發明後，很快就取代了在紙上用表格重複計算的職員。對於賬目複雜的公司來說，這是一個突破，但對於會計職員來說，這會是一場災難嗎？也是也不是。
電子表格，又稱電子數據表，通常用於財務信息，因為它能夠頻繁的重新計算整個表格。EXCEL是微軟OFFICE軟件中的電子表格組件，其做出的表格是電子表格中的一種，除此以外還有國產的CCED、金山WPS中的電子表格等。
According to NPR’s Planet Money podcast, in the US alone 400,000 fewer accounting clerks are employed today than in 1980, just after VisiCalc came out – but there are now 600,000 more jobs for actual accountants than there were back then. The accountancy jobs that vanished after VisiCalc were routine, repetitive and mechanical. Handing them over to a computer allowed humans to spend more time on analysis – and creative responses to what the spreadsheets revealed.
據NPR的《金錢星球》節目的播客調查，僅在美國，在VisiCalc問世之後，如今的會計職員就業人數就比1980年少了40萬人——但現在會計師的實際工作崗位比當時多了60萬個。VisiCalc的出現帶走了會計工作中乏味的重複機械計算。將枯燥的計算交給計算機，可以讓人們花更多的時間進行數據分析和對電子表格的創造性應用。
全國公共廣播電臺（英語：National Public Radio，縮寫為NPR），是一家獲公眾贊助及部分政府資助、但獨立運作的非商業性美國媒體。節目以新聞、綜述、採訪為主，也有一些音樂、脫口秀等文化、娛樂節目。
What can we do to prepare?
我們將如何應對？
While 4IR is a challenge rather than a threat, it poses potential problems. Harford suggests that lower-skilled jobs may become simplistic and soul-destroying, while Professor Scott thinks that people in the middle of the skill spectrum, or those who can’t retrain, may struggle to find work.
雖然第四次工業革命是挑戰而非威脅，但是它仍然帶來了潛在問題。哈福德認為，低技能工作可能會變得過分簡單化、泯滅創造力，而同時，斯科特教授認為，處於中等技能水平或無法再培訓的人可能很難找到工作。
Yet, far from resisting it, economists and politicians say Britain must embrace 4IR, to minimise the risks and ensure the new technologies benefit society as a whole. As digital minister in 2017, Matt Hancock told a group of MPs investigating 4IR: “Our goal must be to automate work, but humanise jobs. Allow machines to do the dangerous, boring and repetitive, and ensure we humans have the capacity to do the creative, empathetic and interactive.”
然而，面對第四次工業革命，英國的經濟學家和政客們並沒有抗拒，而是積極接受，最大程度地降低風險並確保新技術使整個社會受益。2017年，擔任英國數字部長的馬特·漢考克，向正在研究第四次工業革命的國會議員宣稱：“我們的目標是實現自動化，同時也要人性化。讓機器來做危險、乏味和重複性的工作，同時確保人們有能力去進行具有創造性、同理心和互動性的工作。”
Riding the revolution
啟航第四次工業革命
The new technologies driving the fourth industrial revolution are already creating challenges as well as opportunities – and both are likely to multiply as the pace of change accelerates.
第四次工業革命在新技術驅動下，機遇與挑戰並存，隨著變革步伐的加快，兩者都有可能成倍增長。
The potential pitfalls are ethical and social as much as technical, with the biggest perceived threat being increased unemployment. But there is every reason to be optimistic as we seek to take advantage of this latest wave of change.
在道德、社會以及技術層面上都將面臨潛在威脅，失業率上升首當其衝。但是，當我們試圖利用這一變革的浪潮時，我們有充分的理由感到樂觀。
One thing is certain: there is no way to turn back the clock. However we choose to engage with it, technology will reshape our world again.
有一件事可以肯定：我們無法讓時光倒流。所以我們選擇參與其中，不管怎樣，技術都將再一次重塑世界。
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