作者：杜克大學公共政策和政治學教授布魯斯•詹特森
Millennials, the generation born between1981 and 1996, see America’s role in the 21st century world in ways that, as arecently released study shows, are an intriguing mix of continuity and changecompared to prior generations.
千禧一代即出生在1981至1996年的世代，新近公佈的一項研究顯示：相比前幾個世代，他們是以一種饒有意趣的連續性和變化的混合來看待美國在21世紀世界中的角色的。
For over 40 years the Chicago Council onGlobal Affairs, which conducted the study, has asked the American publicwhether the United States should “take an active part” or “stay out” of worldaffairs.
40多年來，進行這項研究的芝加哥全球事務委員會一直在詢問美國公眾美國是應該“積極參與”還是“不參與”世界事務。
This year, an average of all respondents –people born between 1928 and 1996 – showed that 64 percent believe the U.S.should take an active part in world affairs, but interesting differences couldbe seen when the numbers are broken down by generation.
今年，所有受訪者（出生於1928-1996年間的人）的平均數表明：有64%的人認為美國應該積極參與世界事務，但這個數字隨著世代推移而跌落時，也能發現有趣的不同。
Generational views on world affairs
不同世代對世界事務的看法
（圖解：千禧世代中只有51%的人表示，積極參與世界事務對這個國家的未來是最好的）
The silent generation, born between 1928and 1945 whose formative years were during World War II and the early Cold War,showed the strongest support at 78 percent. Support fell from there througheach age group. It bottomed out with millennials, of whom only 51 percent feltthe U.S. should take an active part in world affairs. That’s still moreinternationalist than not, but less enthusiastically than other age groups.
沉默世代出生在1928至1945年間，形成期在二戰和冷戰早期，他們身上展現出對此最高的支持，達到了78%。支持度從那時起隨著每個下降的年齡段而跌落。到千禧一代這裡降至最低點，只有51%的人認為美國應該積極參與世界事務。國際主義者仍然居多，但不如其他年齡段的人狂熱。
（譯註：沉默世代（silent generation，出生於1928-1945）:指的是艾森豪威爾時代大部分美國人的心理，他們滿足於默默遵循流行的商業及社會準則）
Party identification by generation
不同世代的政黨認同
（圖解：紅色指代認同共和黨，藍色認同民主黨，灰色為獨立人士）
There is some anti-Trump effect visiblehere: Millennials in the polling sample do identify as less Republican – 22percent – and less conservative than the older age groups. But they also werethe least supportive of the “take an active part” view during the Obamaadministration as well.
這裡能看到一些反特朗普帶來的效應：調查樣本中的千禧一代認同自己是共和黨的更少，只有22%，而且不如更年長年齡段保守。但他們在奧巴馬政府時期，也是最不支持“積極參與”觀點的。
Four sets of additional polling numbershelp us dig deeper.
額外的四組得票數有助於我們的深入挖掘。
• Military power: Only 44 percent of millennials believe maintainingsuperior military power is a very important goal, much less than the othergenerations. They also are less supportive of increasing defense spending.
軍力：只有44%的千禧一代認為保持超強軍力是非常重要的目標，比其他世代低得多。支持增加國防支出的也更少。
• Alliances and international agreements: Millennials are especiallysupportive of NATO, at 72 percent. In this measure, they are close to the othergenerations’ levels of NATO support. Their 68 percent support for the Parisclimate agreement is higher than two of the other three age groups. And their63 percent support for the Iran nuclear nonproliferation agreement is even withboomers and higher than Gen X.
聯盟和國際協議：千禧世代特別支持北約，支持率達72%。以此衡量，他們接近其他世代對北約的支持度。他們對巴黎氣候條約68%的支持率，比其他的三個世代中的兩個要高。他們對伊朗核不擴散協議63%的支持率，與嬰兒潮世代相仿，高於X世代。
Generational support for NATO
各世代對北約的支持度
• Globalization and key trade issues: Millennials’ 70 percentagreement with the statement that “globalization is mostly good for the UnitedStates” is higher than all the other age groups. Similarly, 62 percent believethat NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement) is good for the U.S. economy –well above the others surveyed. The margin is also positive although narroweron the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement.
全球化與關鍵貿易問題：千禧世代中有70%同意“全球化多半對美國有利”的說法，比所有其他年齡段都要高。類似地，他們中有62%的人相信北美自由貿易協定對美國經濟有益，遠高於受訪的其他人。認為獲利為正，雖然在跨太平洋夥伴關係協定（TPP）上更有限。
These and other polls show millennials tohave a world view that, while well short of isolationist, is also not asassertively and broadly internationalist as previous generations.
這些調查以及其他的民意測驗顯示千禧世代有著這樣的世界觀：雖然孤立主義者相當少，但也不如之前世代那麼自負乃至露骨的國際主義。
Millennials’ worldview and its implications
千禧世代的世界觀及其影響
Why do millennials see the world the waythey do? And with millennials now the largest generation and emerging intoleadership positions, what does it mean for American foreign policy?
為什麼千禧世代如此這般地看待世界？同時，如今千禧世代是人數最多的世代且正大批走上領導崗位，這對美國的外交政策意味著什麼？
In my view, the “why” flows from threeformative experiences of millennials.
在我看來，這個“為什麼”是緣於千禧世代的三種成長體驗。
First, the United States has been at war inAfghanistan and Iraq for close to half the lives of the oldest millennials, whowere born in 1981, and most of the lives of the youngest, born in 1996. DespiteAmerica’s vast military power, neither war has been won.
首先，美國在阿富汗和伊拉克打仗的時間，已達到千禧世代最年長的那些人一半的生命長度，即那些出生在1981年的人，同時也佔到了最年輕的那些出生在1996年人大部分的生命，這兩場戰爭沒有一場是贏的。
So, from the millenials’ point of view, whymake military superiority a priority? Why spend more on defense? Why not beskeptical about other uses of force?
那麼，從千禧世代的視角來看，為什麼要以軍事優勢為優先？為什麼要在國防上支出更多？為什麼不懷疑武力的其他使用方法？
Second, as a generation which is generally“defined by diversity,” as Brookings demographer William H. Frey describesthem, millennials take a less extreme view of Islam. A 2015 Pew Research Centerpoll showed only 32 percent of 18- to 29-year-olds agreed that Islam was morelikely than other religions to encourage violence among its followers. Comparethat to 47 percent of 30- to 49-year-olds and a little more than half of thetwo older age groups.
其次，作為大體上“由多樣性定義”的一代人，如布魯金斯學會人口統計專家威廉·弗雷描述的那樣，千禧世代對伊斯蘭教的看法沒有那麼極端。皮尤研究中心在2015年的一項民意調查顯示：18到29歲人群中只有32%的人同意伊斯蘭教相比其他宗教更可能慫恿其追隨者實施暴力。相比於30到49歲人群的47%，以及兩個更年長年齡段的略微過半。
In this respect in particular, we’d do wellto learn from millennials’ more measured views.
特別是在這個方面，我們最好要向千禧世代更審慎的觀點學習。
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1、Neil S. Grigg，科羅拉多州立大學土木與環境工程學教授
These are interesting results. Many other changes can be noted. At our university there is a change in “internationaleducation.” A Russian professor told methat interest in studying that language has dropped way off. Involvement of faculty in foreign aidprojects is way down. English isunderstood more around the world and becoming more of a common language. You can see the homogenization of cultures,especially between US, Europe and Latin America. I have not digested all of the information tohave an opinion about it, but it is clearly part of “global change.” Maybe Professor Jentleson can make some senseof all this change and tell us what it means for global affairs in general.
這是些很有意思的結果。可以注意到許多其他的變化。在我們的大學裡，“國際教育”存在著變化。一個俄語教授告訴我：人們學習那門語言的興趣已經在下降。參加援外項目的教員也在下降。在全世界能聽懂英語的人更多了，而且它正在變成一門通用語言。你能發現各種文化的同質化，尤其是美國、歐洲和拉丁美洲之間。我還沒有完全消化這些信息好對它產生一種觀點，但很明顯這是“全球性變化”的一部分。也許詹特森教授可以闡明所有這些變化的含義，並告訴我們它在整體上對全球事務的意義。
2、Richard Hart
My dad: the greatest generation.Milennials: the useless generation. Glad I’m older, hope I’m outta here beforeit all collapses into a milennial-run third world shithole.
我爸：最偉大的一代。千禧世代：廢柴的一代。
很慶幸我更年長一些，希望我能在這裡淪為千禧世代執掌的第三世界屎坑之前離開這裡。
3、Sean Meehan
Millennials are no more doomed to repeathistory than the rest of us, who have failed to learn from mistakes of thepast. Exerting influence in the world with clear and humanitarian goals is nota shame, unless we fail to do so.
千禧世代並不比我們其他人更容易重蹈歷史覆轍，是我們沒能從過去吸取教訓。以清晰且符合人道的目標在世界上施加影響不會讓人羞恥，除非我們做不到。
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