2018年7月6日，國際經濟協會主席Kaushik Basu發表署名文章《貿易、技術與習近平之問》，現中英雙語全文編譯僅供參考。文章版權歸原作者所有，觀點不代表本機構立場。
《貿易、技術與習近平之問》
Trade, Technology, and Xi Jinping’s Question
編譯：學術plus
原載：https://www.project-syndicate.org/
“It was the best of times; it was the worst of times,” said President Xi Jinping, quoting Charles Dickens’ famous line to open his speech at the 2017 World Economic Forum. “Today,” Xi continued, “we also live in a world of contradictions.” On one hand, “growing material wealth and advances in science and technology” have enabled unprecedented rates of development. On the other hand, “frequent regional conflicts, global challenges like terrorism and refugees, as well as poverty, unemployment, and a widening income gap” are generating deep uncertainty.
Xi then posed a potent question: “What has gone wrong with the world?”
“這是最好的時代，也是最壞的時代”在2017年世界經濟論壇上習近平主席引用查爾斯狄更斯的名言，他說“今天，我們也生活在一個矛盾的世界之中。一方面，物質財富不斷積累，科技進步日新月異，人類文明發展到歷史最高水平。另一方面，地區衝突頻繁發生，恐怖主義、難民潮等全球性挑戰此起彼伏，貧困、失業、收入差距拉大，世界面臨的不確定性上升。"然後,他提出了一個問題：
“世界到底怎麼了？”
Perhaps the answer lies with the very technology that Xi regards as the key to China’s rise to high-income status. Specifically, it may be that we have reached a turning point in the march of technological progress – one that we are navigating very badly.
也許答案就在於習近平指出的中國成為高收入國家所需的“關鍵技術”。人類社會可能已經到了技術進步的轉折點，但我們前行的方向非常糟糕。
Technology has been shaping and reshaping our lives ever since early human beings discovered how to make tools from stone. It is only natural for such a long process to include moments when technological change generates unprecedented challenges.
自人類學會用石頭製造工具以來，技術一直在塑造和重塑我們的生活。在這樣一個漫長的過程中，應對技術變革所帶來的前所未有的挑戰，是很自然的事情。
One such turning point was the Industrial Revolution. In mid-eighteenth-century Britain, the revolution’s birthplace, progress entailed considerable adversity. Some workers toiled 12-14 hours per day, yet inequality surged. And the incidence of child labor rose beyond the levels seen in some of the poorest Sub-Saharan African economies today.
其中一個轉折點就是工業革命。在18世紀中期，工業革命的誕生地英國，技術進步帶來了相當大的不幸。一些工人每天工作12-14小時，不平等現象卻激增。童工的發生率也超過了撒哈拉以南非洲一些最貧窮經濟體目前的水平。
But Europe rose to the occasion. Groundbreaking research in economics was carried out by the likes of Adam Smith and Antoine Cournot, leading to novel interventions like progressive income tax, as well as new labor laws and regulations. As a result, the Industrial Revolution accelerated economic development and human welfare.
歐洲人挺身而出。亞當•斯密和安東尼•考諾特等人在經濟學領域進行了開創性研究，累進所得稅等新型干預措施，以及新的勞動法和法規，令工業革命加速了經濟的發展和人類的福利。
This so-called Fourth Industrial Revolution is centered on advances in digital technology, including “labor-linking technologies” (which enable workers across continents to work together in real time) and, more recently, artificial intelligence and robotics.
人類發展已經看到了其他“工業革命”，包括目前正在展開的革命。這種所謂的第四次工業革命的核心是數字技術的進步，包括“勞動力連接技術”（使各大洲的工人能夠實時協同工作），以及最近的人工智能和機器人技術。
These advances have enabled economic globalization, which, like the Industrial Revolution, has brought unprecedented progress, as Xi acknowledged, while generating new challenges, including rising inequality and worker vulnerability. But instead of managing those challenges, as Europe did in the nineteenth century, much of the world is succumbing to political polarization, rising nationalism, and a toxic blame game. Most notably, the United States under President Donald Trump has initiated what is rapidly escalating into a tit-for-tat trade war – one that will be devastating for the entire world, but especially for the US itself.
這些進步促進了經濟全球化，正如習近平所強調的，它像工業革命一樣帶來了前所未有的進步，同時帶來了新的挑戰，包括日益加劇的不平等和工人的脆弱性。但與19世紀歐洲應對這些挑戰不同的是，現在世界上許多國家屈從於政治兩極分化、民族主義以及惡劣的相互指責。最值得注意的是，在唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)的領導下，美國發動了一場迅速升級的、針鋒相對的貿易戰。這場貿易戰將對整個世界(尤其是美國本身)造成毀滅性打擊。
What such behavior fails to take into account is that globalization is, fundamentally, a natural phenomenon. It is the result of billions of individuals going about their daily activities, making decisions based on the possibilities available to them. Arguing against globalization is as constructive as blaming gravity for a building’s collapse. As Xi pointed out in his WEF speech, it “is a natural outcome of scientific and technological progress, not something created by any individuals or any countries.”
這種行為沒有考慮到的是，全球化從根本上說是一種必然現象。它是數十億個人進行日常活動的結果，他們根據自己的可能性做出決定。反對全球化就像把大樓倒塌歸咎於重力一樣。正如習近平在世界經濟論壇的講話中指出的“經濟全球化是社會生產力發展的客觀要求和科技進步的必然結果，不是哪些人、哪些國家人為造出來的。”
In the case of Trump’s trade war, US policy also reflects a misunderstanding – one that economists have repeatedly pointed out – about bilateral trade deficits. According to Trump, a trade deficit is essentially a loss, and the countries with surpluses vis-à-visthe US, such as Mexico or China, are behaving in unfair and exploitative ways. Thus, they should be made to pay.
就特朗普的貿易戰而言，美國的政策也反映了對雙邊貿易逆差的誤解（經濟學家一再指出過這點）。特朗普認為，貿易逆差本質上是一種損失，與美國相比，擁有貿易順差的國家(如墨西哥或中國)的行為是不公平和掠奪性的。因此，他們必須付錢。
To understand the fallacy, consider your interaction with the neighborhood grocery store. At the end of each year, you run up a large “trade deficit” vis-à-vis the store, because the store sells goods to you, whereas you do not sell anything to the store. To claim that China “owes” the US for its trade bilateral trade surplus would be like saying that your local grocery store owes you for the money you spent there during the last year. In fact, you were not cheated, just as your employer was not cheated by the bilateral deficit it runs with you. Rather, you made mutually beneficial transactions based on your needs.
為理解這種謬論，不妨用您與您家附近雜貨店打個比方：在每年年底，你都會對這家雜貨店產生巨大的“貿易逆差” ，因為商店向你出售商品，而你不向商店出售任何東西。聲稱中國“欠美國”的雙邊貿易順差，就像是你說當地的雜貨店，欠你去年在那裡花的錢。事實上你並沒有受到欺騙，就像你的僱主沒有被你們之間的“雙邊赤字”欺騙一樣。相反，你按照自己的需要進行了互惠互利的交易。
The modern economy depends on bilateral trade deficits; it would collapse without them. In an age of advanced technologies and accelerating specialization, attempting to manufacture everything domestically or bilaterally would be prohibitively costly.
現代經濟依賴於雙邊貿易逆差；沒有他們就會崩潰。在一個技術先進、專業化進程加快的時代，試圖在國內或雙邊生產所有產品，其成本將高得令人生畏。
For now, the US seems committed to its demands that its partners pay up. The more likely scenario, however, is that economies like Canada, Europe, and Mexico will seek to offset the impact of Trump’s tariffs by deepening their ties with China – an obvious win for America’s main global competitor. Meanwhile, US corporations will probably move production elsewhere to avoid retaliatory tariffs, as some – such as Harley-Davidson – have already threatened to do.
就目前而言，美國似乎堅持要求其合作伙伴償還債務。然而更有可能出現的情況是，加拿大、歐洲和墨西哥等經濟體將尋求通過深化與中國的關係來抵消特朗普關稅帶來的影響，這對美國的主要全球競爭對手來說顯然是一場勝利。與此同時，美國企業可能會將生產轉移到其他地方，以避免報復性關稅，哈雷戴維森等公司已經威脅要這麼做。
There is no denying that the technological turning point at which we find ourselves has caused strain for all countries. But instead of blaming one another for the challenges generated by technological progress – an approach that will only bring about the worst of times – we should work together to address them. Any country that refuses to do so will create strain for all – and end up condemning itself to being left behind.
不可否認，技術進步的轉折點給所有國家造成了壓力。但我們不應該相互指責技術進步帶來的挑戰（這種方法只會導致最壞的時代），而是應該共同努力解決這些問題。任何拒絕這樣做的國家都將給所有人造成壓力，並最終在譴責聲中被甩在後面。
（全文完）
Kaushik Basu
2017年6月至今
國際經濟協會主席；
2012-2016
世界銀行首席經濟學家；
2009-2012
印度政府首席經濟顧問。
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