黃金擊敗未得到檢驗的加密貨幣—區塊鏈可促進數字黃金資產的發展

黃金擊敗未得到檢驗的加密貨幣—區塊鏈可促進數字黃金資產的發展

2017年,金價上漲13%,這是相當高的增長。同一時期內,比特幣的價值增長了13倍,這也導致一些人聲稱加密貨幣可取代黃金作為一個資產類別。

然而,儘管這類數字資產可能發展成為金融體系的既定部分,但並不能替代黃金,因為黃金是一種可靠的投資工具。

黃金是一種流動性極強的資產,並且可在既有監管框架下交易。黃金的供需動態是獨一無二的。這些特徵鞏固了黃金作為主流金融資產的地位。

在過去30多年裡,黃金的年均增值達到10%,波動性相對較小。比特幣則明顯不同。去年12月,比特幣價格飆升至每單位近2萬美元,但在2017年之前從未超過1000美元,今年又已回落至1萬美元左右。這樣的波動性可能會限制比特幣被用作交易代幣,並且這很難是主流貨幣的特徵,更不用說作為價值儲藏了。

據稱加密貨幣市場價值已超過8000億美元。但目前還沒有明確的雙向市場,並且據稱其銷售成本高且耗時,交易量低。比特幣平均每天交易量為20億美元。黃金市場每天交易量約為2500億美元。

黃金作為資產有七千年的歷史,並且長期以來都是一種貨幣,中央銀行以及機構和散戶投資者都持有黃金。作為一種有形資產,黃金具有多種技術用途,包括比特幣“挖礦”所用的計算機芯片。

加密貨幣旨在被用作電子支付系統中的代幣,但有限的支出機會阻礙了其廣泛使用。此外,真正的加密貨幣交易通常會很快被轉換為法定貨幣。

比特幣數量年均增長率約4%,根據其設計,將在2140年左右達到零增長。這種逐漸減緩的增長速度和有限的數量是很有吸引力的特徵,但比特幣並不是一個單獨的區塊鏈應用。鑑於有許多加密貨幣替代品,新的更好的區塊鏈貨幣應用可能被視為相當於增加了供應,與法定貨幣類似。

以黃金結算的交易在許多市場上得到了廣泛的授權和監管,而大多數國家尚未批准加密貨幣,即便他們並未完全禁止加密貨幣。比特幣和其它加密貨幣可能會遭受突然的限制,特別在政府擔心其對經濟政策的影響時。比如,韓國在今年一月份宣佈加強監管措施,而在英國投資者在兌換加密貨幣時面臨障礙。

一些評論人士表示,黃金的價格和需求正在以加密貨幣為代價遭受損失。然而,沒有可量化的證據表明這是事實,推動2017年金價上漲的因素與去年相比幾乎沒有變化,但加密貨幣呈現出一些積極的跡象。

區塊鏈是為加密貨幣奠定基礎的分佈式賬本技術,是真正的創新。

黃金市場上的多個參與方正在探索區塊鏈如何將黃金轉化為“數字資產”,並追蹤整個供應鏈中的起源,並將效率引入交易後的結算流程中。這些應用通常建立在私人區塊鏈上,而不是使用比特幣或其它“公共區塊鏈”。

與黃金不同,加密貨幣還未在經濟週期中接受檢驗。這個市場還很年輕,流動性稀缺。若股市更加動盪,價格、收益和情緒會有何反應,這還沒有定論。然而,無論時好時壞,對黃金的需求一直都在。

英文原文如下:

In 2017 the price of gold rose 13%, a creditable performance. In the same period, bitcoin delivered a 13-fold increase in value, prompting some to claim that cryptocurrencies could replace gold as an asset class.

However, though these digital assets may develop into an established part of the financial system, they are no replacement for gold, a dependable investment tool.

Gold is a highly liquid asset, and trades in an established regulatory framework. Its supply and demand dynamics are unique. These characteristics underpin gold's status as a mainstream financial asset.

Gold has appreciated by an average of 10% per year for more than 30 years, with relatively little volatility. Bitcoin is markedly different. Last December it soared to almost $20,000 per unit, though it never exceeded $1,000 before 2017, and has fallen back to around $10,000 this year. Such volatility potentially limits bitcoin's use as a transaction token and is hardly characteristic of a mainstream currency, let alone a store of value.

The cryptocurrency market is said to be worth more than $800bn. But there is no clear two-way market, sales are said to be costly and time-consuming, and trading volumes are low. Bitcoin trades $2bn, on average, each day. The gold market trades roughly $250bn per day.

With a 7,000-year history as an asset and a long-standing role as money, gold is owned by central banks as well as institutional and retail investors. As a tangible asset, gold has varied technical applications, including in the computer chips that 'mine' bitcoin.

Cryptocurrencies are designed to be used as tokens in electronic payment systems, but limited spending opportunities hamper their widespread use. Furthermore, genuine cryptocurrency transactions are usually quickly converted into fiat currencies.

The volume of bitcoins increases by around 4% per year and is engineered to decline to zero growth around the year 2140. This diminishing growth rate and finite quantity are attractive attributes, but bitcoin is not alone as a blockchain application. Given the many cryptocurrency alternatives, new and better blockchain-based coin applications may be seen as equivalent to increasing supply, not unlike fiat currency.

Trade in gold is widely authorised and regulated in many markets, while most countries have yet to approve cryptocurrencies, even if they have stopped short of banning them outright. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies may be subject to sudden restrictions, particularly if governments become concerned about their impact on economic policy. South Korea, for instance, in January announced increased regulatory measures, while in the UK investors face hurdles to convert cryptocurrencies.

Some commentators claim that gold prices and demand are suffering at the expense of cryptocurrencies. However, there is no quantifiable evidence to suggest this is true, and the factors that propelled the gold price in 2017 appeared little changed from the previous year's, however there are some positives aspects to cryptocurrencies.

Blockchain, the distributed ledger technology that underpins cryptocurrencies, is genuinely innovative.

Various players in the gold market are exploring how blockchain might transform gold into a 'digital asset', tracking provenance across the supply chain and introducing efficiencies into post-trade settlement processes. Such applications are typically built on private blockchains rather than using bitcoin or other 'public blockchains'.

Unlike gold, cryptocurrencies are yet to be tested across economic cycles. The market is young and liquidity is scarce. How prices, returns and sentiment may respond if stock markets become more volatile is open to debate. Gold, however, sees demand in good times and in bad.

【作者:約翰·雷德,世界黃金協會的首席策略師約翰·雷德,原文率先刊發於國際貨幣金融機構官方論壇(OMFIF)出版的《四月公報》(The April Bulletin)中】


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